Pricewise for the Ladbroke!

What a fantastic race we have to look forward to on Saturday in the Ladbroke! Whilst many cards are being cancelled across the country due to appalling weather conditions, the heavy ground doesn’t look like being too much of an inconvenience to many of this 21 strong field and it looks a very hot renewal.

 

With so many unexposed horses it looks a minefield to try and pick the winner from, and you couldn’t be put off fancying any of about 15 of them! One I do feel could be overpriced is David Pipe’s 4yo Kazlian who surprised connections when beaten on his stable debut, but made amends next time out when winning by 50 lengths in heavy ground (a valuable asset given Saturday’s conditions). He followed up with another victory 3 weeks later in soft ground and was massively fancied by the Pond House team in the build up to the Cheltenham Festival in March. Pipe stated in his stable tour that the way the race panned out didn’t suit his charge as “he was wide at the start and raced too keen”, which makes sense as he tracked the leader early on; took it up after the 3^rd; and was still 8 lengths clear approaching 3 from home. Ridden as they approached the last, he was overtaken as the eventual first 3 home kicked on and Kazlian may have been slightly done for toe on the better ground (given his affinity for soft and heavy ground). Though I’m not sure how highly I rate the form of this race in general, the winner has looked smart in winning twice since, and in much softer conditions Kazlian could well have plenty more to come as an unexposed 4yo. He was ridden differently at Aintree on his final start last season so I’d be inclined to draw a line through that run, as I would regarding his reappearance in the RP Hurdle this season as he has come on a lot for his first run a couple of times so hopefully that has dusted off the cobwebs and he can resume progress here. As said, it is not a race I feel is worth getting too caught up in as it’s hugely competitive, but at 20/1 and allotted a racing weight of 10st 6lb (which is likely to be of great benefit in the stamina sapping conditions) he looks a nice each way proposition for a vested interest in the race.

 

There are plenty with big chances on paper, but a couple of others who could run well at more favourable prices are Rigidity and Thomas Edison, both of whom are also 20/1 for the contest. Rigidity has looked out of sorts recently but is down to the same mark of 133 off which he finished half a length 2^nd to Raya Star in the same race this time last season and is also proven in soft/heavy ground so could be another each way alternative off an also favourable racing weight of 10st 4lb. Thomas Edison is owned by JP McManus who loves to have runners in the big races, and this one could turn out to be on a workable mark off 132 as his bumper victory over Champagne Fever looks very smart. He has coped with fairly testing conditions in the past, and although not making much of a mark in his 3 handicap runs to date (his saddle slipped in the first), it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see him find some improvement for a race of this nature. He wasn’t put in the race at all on the middle handicap run, before staying on well, and was held up again in the most recent run and travelled well but was unable to reel in the winner who was in receipt of 20lb. 7 out of the past 9 winners of this race have been held up so his style of racing could be of benefit and at 20/1 he is 1 of 3 that I can see running better than that price would suggest (may even perm the forecast/tricast to a very small stake).

Could Be More To Come?

 

There is nothing more frustrating than identifying one you feel is very nicely handicapped, and then seeing him beaten by one who it turns out was also on a very nice mark. However, this doesn’t always mean the chance has gone and an example of this was At Fishers Cross at Cheltenham last week. Having put up Salubrious (pictured above chasing the winner) on this blog the night before, also highlighting Ardlui as having more to come, I didn’t much enjoy seeing At Fishers Cross demolish the pair on Hennessy Gold Cup Day. The resultant feeling of this race is not that I got Paul Nicholls' horse wrong, but more that At Fishers Cross was extremely well handicapped as he followed up at Cheltenham to frank the form of the other pair. Rebecca Curtis’ son of Oscar has now proven he stays 3m (a stiff one at that when adding in the Cheltenham hill) but he certainly doesn’t look short of pace so would appear versatile in both ground and trip which bodes well for his future. Taking into account the above, one would have to conclude that Salubrious still looks to be worth following next time he runs having been raised just 4lb on the back of his Newbury 2^nd. Ardlui could also prove worth following as he is only 3lb higher, was 8 lengths clear of 4^th, and should up his game now taking in races over trips greater than 2m. He is entered over 2m6f at Ascot on Friday and although I noticed a few others in that race that I am following (which I will highlight in my preview of the meeting when declarations are out tomorrow morning), he is worth keeping in mind, particularly if he’s an each way price when the markets open.

 

Another race on Hennessy Gold Cup Day also looks fairly substantial from a form perspective and that is the Novices Handicap Chase won by Rolling Aces (pictured above fighting it out with the runner up Merry King). Put up on here the night before, Rolling Aces looked very favourably handicapped with the likelihood of further improvement when tried over a trip and handicapping and he justified this optimism when beating Merry King by half a length. That rival was also mentioned in our preview article as he was another who looked to be potentially underestimated by the handicapper with his breeding suggesting a trip and fences would bring about further improvement. Though unlucky to finish 2^nd, I think he’ll have more to come and could be up to defying his revised mark of 6lb, particularly given the 3^rd, Handy Andy, won today at Newbury off the same mark he ran off behind Rolling Aces and Merry King. The latter of that pair is entered for the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock on Sunday, and although heavy ground, he is by Old Vic so shouldn’t be too inconvenienced and could well makes amends for his narrow defeat last time. Rolling Aces is likely to have an engagement at Wincanton on Boxing Day and I’d like to think he’d be up to defying his 8lb higher mark as I’m certain the Newbury race will work out (in addition to Handy Andy, the 10^th and 12^th have both come out and won a race since).

 

 

Handy Andy (pictured above with Joe Tizzard aboard) was bought in January 2011 for £115,000 and his trainer Colin Tizzard supposedly thought a fair bit of him. Having beaten Our Father on his first run, he pulled up lame at Aintree and frightened himself a bit when returning in a Gr2 Novice Chase at Wincanton so he was sent back hurdling to grow up both physically and mentally, and having run 3 weeks in a row in early 2012 he gained victory again in a Newbury Handicap Hurdle off a lowly 115. He was then put away and returned in October, taking in another Handicap Hurdle and then a Beginners Chase, before performing more respectably in the Newbury race off his revised chase mark of 115. Taking into account his price tag and that he has taken time to mature, it could be that the penny has now dropped and having won today he may well go on and rack up another couple of races. He is by Beneficial so today’s 3m and soft ground would’ve been right up his street and granted those conditions again he could well have more to come. Following the same theme, it is feasible that Chartreux (pictured below in action), the horse beaten 2 lengths by Handy Andy today (18 lengths clear of 3^rd), may also have more to come as he has seemingly been beaten by one with a fair bit in hand. He may go up a couple of lbs for today but is only rated 125 over fences compared with a rating of 133 over hurdles so Tom George may have something to work with. It would appear the softer the better for this one and at worst he looks to need some cut in the ground but in his preferred conditions he could be up to going one better.

 

To summarise, the horses highlighted that could still be well handicapped:

 

At Fishers Cross (versatile regarding trip and ground, very impressive)

Salubrious (could be nicely handicapped, wants 2m4f-3m and cut in ground)

Ardlui (should improve for trips of 2m4f+ so could be on a nice mark)

Rolling Aces (3m will suit well, more to come, likes cut in the ground)

Merry King (wants soft ground or worse, should stay 3m+, more to come)

Handy Andy (could still be improving, 3m and cut in ground should suit)

Chartreux (lower over fences than hurdles, maybe more to come, needs soft)

3 Unexposed Horses to Follow

Over the next few weeks and months I hope to post a number of these pieces on either horses who are unexposed, in the hope that when they reappear they can make their mark, or those that look very favourably handicapped and may open up a value price. Here are the first 3, all of whom I believe to be unexposed and have plenty more to come:

 

Im Fraam Govan

As you may have guessed from his name, this horse is by Fraam; not a sire one would automatically assume to be producing National Hunt horses. Another intriguing fact is that he is (or at least was when he made his debut) trained by George Baker, who is a renowned flat trainer and can’t have many NH horses in his yard. But believe me when I tell you this horse is exciting! I’m a regular visitor to Worcester Racecourse but it is not often I return home having seen a horse I’d recommend following through the winter and that could make a Cheltenham Festival horse, but this one certainly took my breath away back in May. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson (pictured below) who has a few horses with Paul Nicholls, he was subject to a big gamble (SP of 7/2 having opened up 16/1 in places) and justified the faith shown in him by taking the race under Conor O’Farrell in the cheekiest fashion. His main rival being Paul Nicholls’ Easter Day, Daryl Jacob was hard at work from a fair way out aboard the Ditcheat inmate and just yards from the line, with the pair neck and neck, O’Farrell didn’t move a muscle as his mount won by half a length. Im Fraam Govan was giving Easter Day 3lb in weight, but it was the nature of the ride that suggests this is a serious animal as his jockey looked supremely confident in not needing to touch him, even though not taking the lead until inside the final furlong and still not shaking him up once taking a threadbare lead. The runner up had previously finished 3^rd at Chepstow behind Melodic Rendezvous who finished 2^nd in the Gr1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown next time out behind Cheltenham Festival Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever. Melodic Rendezvous then reappeared on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham on Friday to take a very competitive Novice Hurdle, confirming the promise he had shown in both previous starts. The form of that Chepstow race looks solid and Easter Day further franked the Worcester race by winning his hurdles debut on the bridle by 12 lengths (the horse he beat is now rated 117 over hurdles and 119 over fences as he won a chase next time out) and even further confirmed his ability in impressively winning a Class 2 Novice Hurdle at Ascot (beating a double winner who is rated 139). Given how well the form of the Worcester race is working out (although there was nothing of substance in behind, that’s to be expected in a race at the course and the pair were 12 lengths clear of the 3^rd and both only 4yos), it is fair to assume that Im Fraam Govan will be a horse very much worth following closely when he next runs, whether he is saved for one of the big spring bumpers or embarks on a hurdling career. In any case, he is a fantastic prospect for his connections and they will no doubt be winning some nice races with him.

 

Turanjo Bello

Another horse whose form ties closely with that of recent Cheltenham winner Melodic Rendezvous is Philip Hobbs’ Turanjo Bello. Having finished 2^nd in a Point he finished 2^nd behind the aforementioned in the Chepstow race in which Easter Day finished 3^rd. The way in which Easter Day has advertised the form is outlined above, whilst the 4^th and 5^th have both won a race since which solidifies the strength in depth of the race. Turanjo Bello then bumped into another very smart horse when finishing 2^nd by ¾ of a length behind Kim Bailey’s exciting youngster Twelve Roses, again back at Chepstow. That rival was in receipt of 13lb that day and although disappointing next time and now injured for the season, he is very highly regarded by his handler. No No Charlie was just a head behind Turanjo Bello and he came out and effortlessly won by 7 lengths next time, before finishing 2^nd to Taquin Du Seuil. Although beaten a fair way by the Jonjo O’Neil horse, he is a star in the making (he narrowly lost out to My Tent Or Yours when giving weight away next time before easily taking a Gr2 event on his only start since) so it is still a creditable run and the 3^rd was another 12 lengths back and won by 27 lengths in a poor Maiden Hurdle next time out. The 4^th behind No No Charlie in Turanjo Bello’s race was Big Society who was beaten less than a length in both of his 2 starts since, giving an even more solid look to the form. Turanjo Bello hasn’t been seen since that race in April, but will surely be worth following in staying Novice Hurdles when he does reappear (he is by Turgeon) and looks another nice horse to have for his trainer Philip Hobbs  (pictured below) and owner Diana Whateley.

Nuts N Bolts

The final of these three horses to follow is a very promising novice chaser named Nuts N Bolts who is in the care of Northern trainer Lucinda Russell. He won a bumper first time out, then followed that up with a creditable 3^rd under a penalty before flopping (understandably given his preferred conditions) when upped in grade for the Gr2 bumper at Aintree. He was then put away and returned 8 months later, taking a Novice Hurdle at Newcastle by 5 lengths before giving Super Duty (who won impressively at Cheltenham on Saturday) a hard race and looking like he might win before that rival fell at the last in another Novice Hurdle at Ayr. He was again put away, presumably to grow up and mature, before returning in an Intermediate Hurdle at the start of October. However, it is over fences that this son of Marju will be seen to best effect, and he subsequently made his chase debut at Carlisle, though interestingly over 2m. Having raced prominently he was beaten a fair way in the end, but this run can be completely ignored as he wants a trip and will almost certainly improve a ton for that run when taking in a race over a longer distance. On that note, he is entered off an opening mark of 128 in a 2m4f Handicap Chase at Newcastle on Saturday and I’d expect him to take all the beating. He loves soft ground and although it’s heavy there at the moment I’d say he’ll be fine in it and will be getting on each way (he should be a fair price) as soon as the markets open on Friday. He’s is only a 6yo and his trainer has publicly stated he is a nice staying type and that “we're quite excited about him because his form of last season is pretty solid and he looks like he's going to improve again over fences but further than two miles next time."

 

 

Hopefully these 3 will prove fruitful to follow, and there will be plenty more posts similar to this one over the next couple of weeks and months, with a particular focus in the New Year on well handicapped horses who are likely to be targeting races at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Happy Days!

Cocktails at Dawn!

Not often one to take too much of an interest midweek (it can be a lottery, particularly in ground conditions like we are currently ‘enjoying’) but Special Catch was a nice winner for any of you who follow @kingofthejumps on Twitter. His form stacked up and he did as expected to take a fairly weak contest at Catterick. If any of you are on Twitter and not currently following, it may be worth giving us a follow and a retweet as sometimes the odd fancy will be put on there and not in the blog if there’s only 1 or 2 of interest on the day. Also feel free to email kingofthejumps@gmail.com if you have any comments, feedback, questions or suggestions for this blog.

Off to Ludlow (pictured below) again tomorrow and felt I should at least browse the declarations for tomorrow’s meetings and try and pick out the odd one to watch out for. The 2.10pm sees Dark Energy run for Fergal O’Brien and again Miss Ally Stirling rides. Fergal recently did a stable tour on the At The Races site and said of this horse: “I'm looking at a ladies race at Ludlow in mid-December which will be ideal for him”. It’s a low grade race so he won’t get bullied; jockey knows him well and he proved he goes on soft ground. It is a 14 runner, Amateur Lady Riders Handicap Hurdle so he may be an each way price and if he is I’ll probably have a tiny interest.

 

The following 2.45pm race is another I may have a small interest in if Allthekingshorses is even a half decent price as an opening handicap chase mark of 127 could turn out to be workable for a horse who beat Rocky Creek off level weights over hurdles. I wouldn’t think he’ll scale the same heights as that rival but is by Kings Theatre so should make a decent chaser (his trainer seems to be a big fan of the sire) and although maybe suited by slightly better ground, I thought that of the same trainer’s (and same sire’s) Carrigmorna King but he justified my support at this track on chase debut so hopefully Allthekingshorses can do the same tomorrow.

The other race of interest is the very next race at 3.15pm which sees Nicky Henderson (pictured below) run the talented Polly Peachum who has to give 7lb to the field. However, she may just be up to it as the form of her 3 runs to date looks smart as she wasn’t beaten far on debut in a jumpers bumper by the impressive Devon Drum, and has subsequently racked up 2 wins in a bumper and a novice hurdle, beating Mischievous Milly in the bumper (beaten a short head next time before taking hurdles debut by 21 lengths giving weight away) and Pure Style in the novice hurdle (who won a jumpers bumper on the bridle by 8 lengths next time out). The other horse I like the look of in the race is The Wicked Kipper who is a close relation to Cue Card; was beaten only 3 lengths by the very able Midnight Minx on debut; and is by Kings Theatre so should improve for hurdles and tomorrow’s step up in trip. The Henderson horse is likely to be plenty short enough so if the Wicked Keeper is an each way price it may pay to side with her given the potential for improvement and the weight she receives.

Over at Newbury, Nicky Henderson could take the 12.15pm Juvenile Hurdle with the now gelded Amoralist as his schooling has reportedly gone very much to plan, but the 1.20pm is certainly the race of the day for me. Alan King runs 2 here and both Arabian Heights (owned by the McNeil family) and Fair Trade could stake their claims, the latter having been rated 114 (he ran in the Guineas) and having schooled well. He is very well regarded by the Barbury Castle team and should make his mark over hurdles but tomorrow is no easy task as Poet (also smart on the flat), The Nephew (who cost £55,000 at the sales in the spring and could have more to offer under Barry Geraghty on better ground than he’s encountered in 2 runs to date) Snake Eyes (a very well regarded son of Oscar who shocked many when beaten on debut but surely has plenty more to come) and a couple of other interesting sorts all line up in this uncharacteristically strong, 19 runner maiden hurdle! I’ll certainly be going “no bet” but it’s a nice surprise for a Wednesday afternoon card. Henderson could take the 3pm contest with Cocktails At Dawn, who he not only loves because of the name but also thinks could be a very exciting horse. He fell when booked for 2^nd in a Point (the winner sold for £300,000) and is by the same sire as Simonsig, so you would think he’ll show up well in this Novice Hurdle.

 

It’s always nice to be on course so I’m looking forward to Ludlow tomorrow but just praying the predicted rain doesn’t arrive! As always, it could end up being a day just for watching but at least there is a bit of quality on show so hopefully it will be a decent day out - though I doubt we'll be inclined to try out any cocktails on a cold, wintery December day!

Happy Days!

Review of Cheltenham's International Meeting and more!

As ever, I thoroughly enjoyed both days at Cheltenham this weekend. In fact, I’m not sure it would even be possible to visit the course and not have a great time (though maybe I’m slightly biased!). For the first time since I’ve been a member (this is the third season), I actually made it up into the Insurance Bar and members’ seating and was gobsmacked by the view. Simply walking out trackside at Cheltenham takes your breath away, but the view you get watching racing from the elevated position in line with the finishing line is second to none!

 

Concentrating on the racing and what a cracking 2 days we enjoyed, though it is important to remember how awful and testing the ground conditions were when looking back on the form with a view to future races. Whilst certain horses were supremely impressive, it could be slightly naive to take the form of this weekend’s races at face value as some horses would have been suited ideally and others would have hated it. One that falls in the latter category is Broadbackbob who was never travelling in the opening race of the weekend and I’d simply write his run off as he will make a nice chaser given the better conditions he desires. The winner, Super Duty, looks a very nice horse himself though and is likely to go on over fences so is worth following. Rebel Rebellion was again disappointing but I’d be willing to chance him when back on decent ground as his 2 flops over fences have come on very testing ground and he has hurdles form on better surfaces.

I had no feelings about the 2^nd race beforehand and frankly still don’t but Dark Lover was put up on here as one that could figure prominently in the 3^rd race and so he did, hosing up impressively by 16 lengths on ground I still feel he’s not best suited by. With the possibility of improvement back on better ground he could still progress but it would depend on how the handicapper assesses him and I would think he’ll gain a hefty rise for this win. Another horse in the race also wants better ground and Top Of The Range could be nicely handicapped by the time he encounters it so is worth sticking in the tracker with that in mind. He’s only a 5yo so I’d say there’ll be more to come but being by Presenting, the aforementioned better ground and a switch to chasing would seem needed for us to see him at his best.

The 4^th race on Friday was a bit of an odd one for me as Midnight Chase was withdrawn and I think connections of both Bradley and Quart De Thaix are still considering the Welsh National for their charges, though I wouldn’t be as keen to back them after they’ve run 3m1f in that ground just 2 weeks prior to the Chepstow race!

The X-country was another letdown for me having backed Uncle Junior as he departed before any indication of where he may have finished so I'd still be keen to follow him in future. The winner, Outlaw Pete (pictured above), was very impressive but was receiving plenty of weight which was always going to be of great benefit on the heavy-riding X-country course. It was nice to see Bostons Angel show signs of a revival in finishing second as he has been out of sorts for a long time now but seemed to take to the obstacles nicely so hopefully has found his niche and can continue to enjoy racing in these slightly less conventional races.

A race I’d be more inclined to take note of is the 3m handicap hurdle won by Rebecca Curtis’ talented 5yo At Fishers Cross, who after taking a Newbury handicap with noticeable ease last time out (beating 2 well handicapped sorts in the process), racked up another victory over this new extended trip. Inish Island is a big strapping horse and ran a nice race in 2^nd, not beaten far, and they were a good 8 lengths clear of the 3^rd so could both be worth noting.

 

As suggested before racing, I still feel the last race on Friday is one that will throw up plenty of winners this season and in future years. The winner Melodic Rendezvous did it nicely and confirmed the promise he showed when finishing 2^nd in the Gr1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown by taking this competitive heat from the Nicky Henderson trained Royal Boy. Barry Geraghty’s mount hadn’t run for a long time and although outpaced slightly, stayed on impressively to lose out by less than a length at the finish. I’ve no doubt he’ll come on for the run and is sure to pick up races in the not too distant future to help justify his £150,000 price tag. Eduard performed with great credit again in 3^rd, as did Imperial Leader in 4^th who I think is most worth taking from the race from a long term perspective. They both gave the majority of the field 6lb in weight and are both only 4yo’s, making their performances even more commendable. Imperial Leader, like the more well known Imperial Commander, is by Flemensfirth so the 2m1f trip would certainly have been plenty short enough and this was evident in the way his race panned out. He was a bit keen early on which is understandable for a young, inexperienced horse and he will certainly mature in time. He was a little outpaced in the middle stages of the race but stayed on dourly (as his breeding would suggest) and battled gamely to take 4^th place. He has proven he can handle the hill at Cheltenham which is an excellent sign for things to come, and given time to gain experience and grow up both physically and mentally, I’m certain this one will make into a serious horse and could even return to Prestbury Park for one of the novice hurdle events in March. He will no doubt improve for a step up in trip which would appear likely given his performance and I recommend following this one closely wherever he goes!

For want of a better indication that the quality of racing this weekend – the above was Friday at Cheltenham alone! Saturday however, brought equally as talented horses, on cards across the country! Any of you who read Saturday’s preview on here will know we had a good day and although many were favourites, nearly reached double figures on the winners count (including the 13/2 winner of the Lingfield bumper!). Although I don’t particularly like putting up short priced horses (anyone can pick out the jolly), occasionally I will if I feel they are deservedly favourite and should do nothing but win their race!

 

The opener Saturday went pretty much as expected as the impressive Far West confirmed previous form with the since gelded Handazan. Alan King’s charge looked to have Ruby Walsh at work on the winner a couple out but Paul Nicholls’ promising youngster soon put the race to bed by a comfortable distance and I’d say he’ll go on to better things. Slightly surprising as we often tend not to see the elite juveniles until after Christmas these days but either this one is bucking the trend or Mr Nicholls has a serious horse to unleash on the Triumph market!

 

The 2^nd race was pleasing as although not investing financially in Highland Lodge, it is always nice to pick one against the odds on favourite and see it win. Emma Lavelle (pictured above) had a great day across the cards on Saturday and this one looked an absolute picture in the parade ring and prevailed in conditions he most definitely thrives in. Barry Geraghty mentioned in his weekend review blog (I’m sure he has a few more readers than this one – for now!) that Lavelle may have a future Welsh National horse on her hands and it would be hard to disagree as the softer the better and he appears to stay all day. Not one I’d consider for the RSA (unless Cheltenham was a bog in March) but he is certainly worth keeping in mind when gifted his preferred conditions.

Shooters Wood won nicely at Cheltenham last time and backed up that display with another win this weekend, though it was nearly a different result as Ruby Walsh didn’t appear to notice AP attempting to blindside him up the home straight on His Excellency. Fortunately for Walsh, David Pipe’s inmate didn’t appear to want to win as much as his jockey and Shooters Wood held on, but it was a heart in mouth moment for those who backed the Nicholls horse. As with all races this weekend, particularly the handicaps, it will be hard to assess the substance of the victory as they were very much strung out in behind, but the pair finished 33 lengths clear of the disappointing joint favourite Garynella in 3^rd.

 

 

Mattie Batchelor is already a fan favourite and his exploits on Carruthers (the pair are pictured above) were enjoyed as much by those who didn’t back him as those that did! He appears to have a serious horse on his hands in the shape of double Cheltenham winner Coneygree, who battled gamely to the line on the back of a headstrong, end to end front running performance that firmly placed this one on my radar for the future. To stay 3m in that ground after going a fair gallop the whole way was impressive enough in itself, but the way he quickened up again when challenged on the run in by Aerial, who had been given an excellent stalking ride by Ruby, was extremely impressive and he is certainly a horse for the notebook! Another that looked a picture in the parade ring, he will make a lovely staying chaser in time, but will surely make his mark in staying hurdles and assuming he handles better ground in the same way he has the soft/heavy conditions, he could be a festival horse come March.

From one impressive performance to another, as Unioniste became the youngest horse ever to win the December Gold Cup as he stormed to victory under a featherweight for young Harry Derham to land the 2^nd of the 2 big handicap chases this side of Christmas for his superb trainer. Though in receipt of plenty of weight, it does not detract from the achievement of winning this race as a 4yo and he looks another bright grey prospect for his owner John Hales to look forward to after the disappointing news his previous big race winner Al Ferof could be out for the season. As impressive as the horse, young Derham (pictured below aboard Unioniste) certainly looks a jockey going places and with the firepower he will no doubt receive working for his uncle Paul, he looks sure to pick up some more nice races in the future. Walkon ran another creditable race in 2^nd after filling the same spot behind Al Ferof in the PaddyPower, and they were again strung out in behind so as with previous races it may pay not to read too much into the form.

 

The final 2 races on the card at Cheltenham contained the most talented horses on show at the course, but the former was far more competitive than the latter. Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby all ran with great credit in the International (or Bula as many still refer to it) but I feel no more educated on how the Champion Hurdle may pan out than before the race! Zarkandar was receiving 4lb from those 2 rivals and duly took this competitive heat, but no by far! He also had a run under his belt which the other pair didn’t, but that does not mean I think they would reverse the form in March. Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby both hurdled beautifully and I’d say Zarkandar was as slick over his hurdles as a cherry ripe Binocular on his day! He also stayed on extremely well when challenged at the finish by Grandouet, though that rival will probably come on a fair amount for the run having been off the course for a year. Rock On Ruby would have been inconvenienced by the ground, but then so would the other 2, so who do we take from the race? Personally – all 3. Zarkandar is my favourite of the 3, and I think that the quicker they go (and I’m sure they will on better ground and in a Champion Hurdle) the more effective I feel he will be as it will bring his stamina into play so I’m hoping he will confirm the form when they next meet, though he will need to improve accordingly when racing off level weights. Oscar Whisky was the other class horse to run on Saturday and he took the finale as expected in a pointless, 3 runner affair. If we get soft ground in March he’d have to be taken seriously as a Champion Hurdle contender, but could go for the World Hurdle given the recent news that Big Bucks may be out for the season. Either way he is an excellent horse and will no doubt pick up a couple more races this season, possibly including the Aintree Hurdle where he could bump into Zarkandar (pictured below) and Rock On Ruby over 2m4f.

 

Not wanting to miss out on the other racing from Saturday, a couple of horses were put up on here and must be mentioned now having impressed in their respective races and looking like horses to follow. Kim Bailey’s Midnight Oscar may have idled on the run in but he ran a nice race on Saturday and I think he’s one who will improve for a better quality race. He looked in great nick and will continue to mature so follow him wherever he goes as he has bundles of potential! Rocky Creek (pictured below) finished 2^nd to Bailey’s Newbury winner Harry Topper on chase debut at Exeter (with Highland Lodge in 3^rd) and he also confirmed the form of that race in winning nicely at Doncaster. He looked around a bit when in front but jumped nicely and will certainly go on to better things so could well make into an RSA horse by the spring. Court In Motion is another novice chaser who won Saturday and he is also likely to go on over fences as he was a smart hurdler and appears to have taken to the larger obstacles. He won on the same Lingfield card as Tanerko Emery who justified our faith in winning again, though now likely to earn himself a hefty rise in the handicap it could be worth deserting him now. Alphabetical Order was another pleasing win for this blog as he took the all-weather bumper at 13/2 for his new trainer Tim Vaughan. The other horse I feel compelled to mention from Saturday is Samtegal, who in finishing 2^nd by a length to impressive winner Kashmir Peak, cost me over a grand in the process as the other 5 selections in my multiple went in! Thanks for that!!

 

Only 2 races I feel are worth mentioning from Sunday’s card at Navan, as Boston Bob won the opening novice chase, and Pont Alexandre surprised many (but not all of us) in beating Don Cossack who actually fell once beaten. Boston Bob didn’t look as impressive as some may have wished, but he got the job done and will improve for it and I’d say he’ll be winning more races soon. Don Cossack has been touted highly after an impressive season in bumpers, but I wouldn’t desert him after this defeat as he is definitely a chaser in the making and was beaten by a serious horse in Willie Mullins’ Pont Alexandre. I’m certain the form will be franked considerably by the winner over the following months and assuming he is okay following a fairly nasty fall, Don Cossack (pictured below) will still be worth following, possibly over hurdles this season and without doubt when going novice chasing next season.

 

A weekend to savour and I promise you that winners from all 3 days will be popping up again throughout the season! Next weekend will no doubt be another interesting one with Simonsig likely to make his chase debut (possibly against exciting Champion Hurdle runner up Overturn) and there is plenty to look forward to with the prestigious Ladbroke Hurdle on Saturday!

 

Happy Days!

International Hurdle Day at Cheltenham

Another mixed day yesterday with Bradley flopping and Uncle Junior crashing out, but the day paid for by Dark Lover (who was available at around 6/1) and At Fishers Cross (around 3/1 and the advised forecast also came in!). Though not making frame I thought it worth mentioning that Imperial Leader ran a cracker yesterday, understandably outpaced over a trip too short but staying on gamely and not beaten at all far. Given he is only a 4yo and had to give 6lb to most of this talented field, I'm certain he'll be winning sooner rather than later so is one to stick in your tracker!

 

Not the best of cards at Cheltenham again today and due to the extreme weather (I imagine the ground will ride very heavy today) I won't be having a bet, though I'm already on Notus De La Tour who was put up a few weeks ago on http://kingofthejumps.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/could-notus-be-ante-post-value-in.html. The race looks a decent one and the other 2 I'd fancy would be Paul Nicholls' pair of Unioniste and Cristal Bonus. The former jumped like a veteran on chase debut in a hot race behind Dynaste and Fingal Bay and should come on for it as he had a wind op in the summer. The latter I feel has plenty more to come and could be the class horse of the race.

 

The big race aside I wouldn't be looking to have a bet but as always will have a close eye on proceedings. Handazan could have more to come since being gelded and will love conditions but he'd have to improve a serious amount to reverse the form with Far West who could be one of the best juveniles around this season. Coneygree won well here last time and as ever course form is a crucial factor at Cheltenham so he could be up to repeating that effort. Our Father will take all the beating in the Novice Chase but Highland Lodge could run a nice race under Barry Geraghty as I feel he's up to winning one of these 3m contests in testing conditions. The International Hurdle doesn't boast the biggest of fields but is certainly not lacking in quality as it contains 3 very live Champion Hurdle contenders in Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby. I'm not sure what to make of the race given the very testing conditions and I'm not sure the result will have much of an influence on my views for the race in March, but I'm hoping Zarkandar prevails as I have him in my Ten To Follow team and it's going quite well! Oscar Whisky is also in my team and you'd expect him to oblige at whatever pointless odds on price he goes off at.

 

 

Cheltenham aside I actually fancy a few elsewhere today and Doncaster hosts a nice little card. Kings Grace is quite highly regarded by the McCain team so should have more to come and Rocky Creek (pictured below) is potentially a top class novice chaser and should come on a lot for his chase debut when narrowly missing out to Harry Topper (who advertised the form at Newbury a fortnight ago). Samtegal may not be favourite for the juvenile but could make it a double on the card for the Champion Trainer as he has stated this horse would be on a par with Far West; a level of form that you'd expect to be good enough to take this affair. The horse I'm most looking forward to today is the Kim Bailey trained Midnight Oscar, who lines up in the Novice Hurdle at Doncaster. Midnight Oscar is a cracking prospect for a trainer many of you will be aware I'm a huge fan of. MO was beaten on hurdle debut but Ludlow would be plenty sharp enough and I'd say he'll come on loads for the run and be better suited by this more galloping track. He's certainly an exciting prospect for the future regardless of how he fares today, but he should run a nice race so may be worth a punt depending on the price.

 

 

Lingfield hosts the day's other jumps meeting in England and Tanerko Emery should take all the beating as he won cosily last weekend after a cheekily confident ride at Ascot. Court In Motion has 2 declarations today but Lingfield is his preferred engagement and he's a horse I feel will progress as a chaser, though he's likely to be no price. The other horse I'll be watching there is Alphabetical Order, who has joined Tim Vaughan having previously been trained by Colin Tizzard. His former handler stated in a stable tour that "he'll be alright next time and I'll be disappointed if he can't win a bumper". He hasn't run since but a move to Vaughan is hardly a step back and he could be up to winning one soon.

 

Good luck if you have a bet today but I doubt I'll get involved unless I feel something is seriously overpriced (though I may not be able to resist a bet on Midnight Oscar!).

Preview for Friday of Cheltenham's International Meeting

Last weekend was a mixed bag. Certain results were disappointing and I had more than my fair share of 2nds with Oscar Magic, Aland Islands, Sin Bin and Join Together all hitting the crossbar as so to speak. Join Together took my breath away in defeat, jumping the Grand National fences like a seasoned pro before staying on like a train to lose out by a whisker. Whether he’ll stay 4m+ is another question but he is certainly a potentially exciting National candidate. On a more positive note, Araldur landed the spoils at an SP of 10/1, before Little Josh made a great day a fantastic one for Nigel Twiston Davies when taking the Grand Sefton at 7/2, though having opened up 8/1 in places just after being put up with Araldur on here! Though disappointed by the 2nds and flops from Rangitoto and Tempo De Cotte, these 2 winners more than covered the losses so it was alright in the end.

This weekend we return to Cheltenham and Friday looks a seriously competitive card. As I’ve said before on here I won’t have a bet or put a horse up for the sake of it, so if a race is very competitive or contains 2 or more horses I’m waiting for, I’d rather not have a bet than pick one and be beaten by the other! Unfortunately that is again the case at Cheltenham tomorrow, particularly in the Novice Chase and Novice Hurdle. Hildsivini is a promising horse for Charlie Longsdon who should go on over fences, but he faces no easy task in the 12.15pm where he’ll be taking on the likes of Broadbackbob and Rebel Rebellion and has to give those rivals 3lb. A race for watching I feel but certainly one to savour.

Next are 12 and 17 runner affairs respectively and although I’ll be ducking the 12.45pm, I may have a small interest in the 1.20pm. Dark Lover ran a decent race last time in the hugely competitive Racing Post Hurdle having previously won at the course in October. He may have finished 7^th but was only beaten 8 lengths and is partnered by Ruby Walsh this timee who, although not claiming 3lb, could find more improvement. Tom Du Lys would be interesting on his French form (he beat Unioniste over hurdles) and his trainer has stated they didn’t have much time before fitting him in a run at Sandown (when flopping) so it could be worth writing that off. He has grown and looks more the part now so may show a large degree of improvement and I’ll probably wait and see the market before deciding whether or not to bet him or the Nicholls horse (or neither!).

 

The 1.55pm isn’t a particularly appealing race for me but Bradley catches the eye. He nearly won last time and has run well at Prestbury Park a few times now, also proving himself in similar conditions. He is up 5lb for his close 2^nd but I have a feeling the first 3 home that day could have more to come so he may be worth chancing as he has a lovely racing weight of 10st 4lb. Course specialist Midnight Chase is the class horse of the race but carrying top weight won’t be easy and his price is likely to be skinny enough.

Hardly unexposed and he’s up 6lb for his win last time, but I think Uncle Junior will pick up another x-country race in the 2.30pm tomorrow. If you re-watch that win he makes one serious mistake but still travels like a dream and wins with great ease. Likely to be no price but Mullins doesn’t send horses over for no reason and I think he could take this one.

The 3.05pm sees another competitive big runner handicap field and Saint Roque immediately stands out after I had a decent punt on him last time off a lenient mark of 118. He was travelling very nicely that day and I feel could have taken the race if he hadn’t been brought down, but is sure to be a short price as the cat is out of the bag now.  Given that Saint Roque is trained by Paul Nicholls, it is of serious note that Ruby Walsh is declared on Inish Island who is trained by the aforementioned Willie Mullins. Obviously Ruby rides for both trainers but it is usually worth noting when he chooses one of Willie’s over one of Paul’s; particularly when believing the Nicholls horse to be well handicapped. The other horse I like the look of is At Fishers Cross who disposed of Salubrious very easily at Newbury the other week (much to the disappointment of my wallet!!) and a 9lb rise may not stop him as I feel that rival and Ardlui (who finished 3^rd) were both well handicapped themselves and the 3 were well clear of 4^th. Again the market will play a part in deciding whether or not to have a bet in this contest but the 3 all look like playing a large part in proceedings so I'll probably go each way about any that are 5/1 or bigger as they should make the frame whilst having a decent chance of winning so would be a safe bet. Maybe even perm the forecast/tricast.

The day closes with what I believe to be the most competitive, and also my favourite, race on the card! Not usually one to love novice hurdles, it is hard not to get excited over the prospects of this one at 3.40pm. Mr Watson cost £215,000 at the sales, Melodic Rendezvous ran 2^nd behind Champagne Fever in a Gr1 bumper at Punchestown, and Village Vic ran a cracker behind The New One at this course not long ago..... And they’re the ones I don’t fancy!!! Nicky Henderson is bidding for a 4 timer in this race having taken the past 3 renewals and Barry Geraghty rides Royal Boy for his boss. He cost £150,000 at Goffs sale in 2011 and although a cracking chase prospect for the future, he hasn’t run for over 600 days having suffered a setback so he may need this. Eduard won nicely last time but would need to improve a fair bit to take this hot contest and I’d totally discard Dr Dreamy, which leaves just Valdez and Imperial Leader. Both are horses I rate very highly and it would take a tough decision to split the pair! Valdez surprised many when losing on hurdles debut but put things right winning next time (Softsong in 2^nd finished a close 3^rd in a Listed event at Sandown last weekend) and could make into a Supreme horse come March so could take all the beating here. Imperial Leader, owned by the same partnership that own a certain Imperial Commander, is also a lovely horse who lost on debut to a decent sort but gave the race away through running so keenly early on. Having finished 2^nd in another bumper he was put away and seemingly matured over the summer as he returned with an impressive victory over a decent rival when upped in trip for his hurdles debut at Southwell. Like Imperial Commander, he is out of Flemensfirth so will be wanting all of 3m and fences in time so tomorrow’s trip could be on the short side (tomorrow's conditions could help make it more of a test of stamina), but he is certainly a hugely exciting young prospect who could go to the very top!

Hopefully tomorrow morning’s declarations for Saturday will be more kind and not pitch more than one of my horses to follow against each other! But below is a summary of the horses I’ll have in mind if the prices are right:

1.20pm – Dark Lover / Tom Du Lys (prefer e/w but may bet if 3/1 or bigger)

1.55pm – Bradley (if an e/w price)

2.30pm – Uncle Junior (NAP)

3.05pm – Saint Roque / Inish Island  / At Fishers Cross (bet any at e/w price)

3.40pm – Valdez / Imperial Leader (if e/w price, may be value in hot contest)