Aintree - Grand National Day

 

Tomorrow is my favourite day of the year. I LOVE the Grand National. I usually go to post (not literally) having backed nearly half the field as I care very little about making profit on the race, I just want a good chance of having a "live one" as they turn for home to increase that excitement (if that's at all possible?!)!

 

As followers of this blog will know, I backed Chicago Grey (pictured below) at 50/1 (and put a post up about why) months ago, he is now much shorter and hopefully has good claims as the ground is ideal for him. Join Together is another I backed a while back, taking 70.0 the win and 27.0 the place. I think it may be a year too early for this young horse but I expected (and later enjoyed!) a fantastic display of jumping in the Becher Chase and his price collapsed. I will no doubt add a good few more to the "team" before the big race goes off, but have included a couple in here. In fairness, I think you are better off picking your own whether you study form, pick by name/colour, or get the dog to make a muddy paw print somewhere on the racecard!

 

 

We all love a big price winner (if we've backed it) and one I think is massively overpriced is Any Currency. He should appreciate this better ground as he hosed up off 127 (5lb lower than tomorrow) last time he encountered good ground; he looks an out and out stayer (that win was 3m4f and he is always staying on at the finish); he goes off a lovely racing weight; and he is 100/1 so looks worth a small nibble in a race we all know can chuck up a surprise.

0.25pt e/w @ 100/1

 

The National aside I fancy a few at nice prices tomorrow and although not putting him in the blog piece, Triolo D'Alene (pictured below) was mentioned very favourably in a tweet shortly after (when 25/1) and duly obliged in the Topham having been granted his preferred good ground, so hopefully another will follow suit!

 

 

Johns Spirit was travelling nicely into his race at Cheltenham before blundering badly 4 out which cost him any chance he may have had. The race before that was also at Cheltenham and he blundered when making headway 3 out. Race before that he finished 2nd to a certain Katenko, who we all know is progressive and could be very handy. JS is still off the same mark of 133. He'd won fairly comfortably before that Katenko race and in only 2 other chase starts previously he made plenty of errors and was well beaten. As you may have guessed, he needs to jump well, but if he does I think he has a good chance of being competitive off this mark as he's lightly raced over fences and is only a 6yo. This is his only his 2nd attempt over 3m (the first being behind Katenko) so I think there's scope for improvement, and the trip will give him more time at his fences which may help. He was beaten a head in a Good to Firm bumper and has won twice on Good to Soft so should be okay on the ground.

1pt e/w @ 16/1 (various)

First In The Queue (pictured above) is a speculative selection but he takes a drop down in class having been recently tried in Listed and Gr3 company. I'm convinced he wants this better ground and he ran a cracker when beaten a head in soft ground at Ascot by Petit Robin off just 2lb lower in a class 2 (as tomorrow is) as that horse confirmed it to be no fluke when winning again next time off roughly the same mark (given a very good claimer was jocked up and negated most of, if not all of, the rise) and then finished 2nd to Cause of Causes in the Ladbroke off a good few lbs higher.

0.25pt e/w @ 40/1

In a competitive race it can't hurt to go in double handed and Special Catch goes off a nice low weight in the same race and I think he will be okay on the ground as he performed well behind Oscar Nominee last season on similar.

0.25pt e/w @ 16/1

I saw Tistory win at Ludlow on his British debut, beating Court Minstrel (pictured above) in the process. He was understandably green that day but looked a smart horse and will no doubt improve with experience. It is interesting they haven't run him all season and then chuck him into what looks a strong bumper. MTOY ran in it last year so if he's half as good he could have been overpriced at the 6s he opened up at.

 

1pt e/w @ 6/1 (He is now 3/1 but was put up on @kingofthejumps twitter at 6/1 in case the price went while this was being written so as to avoid “aftertiming” on the price).

 

 

Vago Collonges' form with Oscar Rock is a piece I like a lot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Pure Science run a nice race for Nigel Twiston-Davies (pictured above, who won this race last year with The New One), but I know a group of lads who will more than likely back Sgt Reckless into 11/10 favourite by the time this race goes off, so it would be sacrilege not to join the party with a small interest. He is very highly regarded and although things didn't go to plan at Cheltenham, I think this track could suit and at his price he looks worth siding with.

 

0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor / PaddyPower)

 

In the 4.45pm at Chepstow I personally won’t be having a bet as our racing club part own Is It Me, but I think Quiet Whisper may improve tomorrow for Kim Bailey (pictured below, it will be interesting to read his views in his morning blog). QW has dropped to 97 very quickly from 115 and the return to 2m on better ground looks like it could suit as he has won in those conditions in the past.

0.25pt e/w @ 20/1

 

 

African Gold takes a step out of novice company tomorrow in the Liverpool Hurdle but I think this could be a very serious horse who will take high rank as a novice chaser next season so I'm willing to take a risk on him being up to this standard. He is very highly regarded and ran a stormer at Cheltenham to chase home the impressive At Fishers Cross in ground that would have suited the winner far better.

 

1pt e/w @ 8/1

 

Though not as fancy a price as the rest, Dodging Bullets definitely wants this better ground and although it's no easy task, I think he could be one of the best novices from this season in the right conditions so feel I must have a few quid on him to win the opener for Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls (pictured below).

2pt win @ 5/2

 

 

As with any big priced selections, they are far from certainties (there is no such thing anyway) but they require less outlay stake-wise and hopefully one or two will run nice races and make the frame.

Aintree - Day 2

Bookies 1-0 Punters. A warning not to get involved? Or a prompt to search for more value? The latter I hope, as I intend to just have a couple of bigger priced each way selections for an added interest. Tomorrow could be equally as brutal a day, but as always a few catch the eye. Firstly the obvious, My Tent Or Yours (pictured below), who looks a “good thing” (though I thought Conti was today!) but is obviously not a working man's price. The Mildmay looks competitive and I’m certain Rocky Creek will turn out the best horse in the race over the next few years. He wasn’t too impressive last time but looked like he’d improve at least a stone for a left handed track. The only worry is that he’s supposedly Hennessy-bound next season so on a mark of 152 he would appear to already be on a nice mark for it. The return to a flat track could suit Dynaste well so I wouldn’t be getting involved in this one, but it certainly looks a race to keep a close eye on.

The Melling is probably my favourite race of the meeting as Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card are 2 of my favourite horses in training. Flemenstar drops to what I believe to be his optimum trip, and this could be an absolute corker. Finians Rainbow will appreciate this better ground but I think the trio are a cut above him now. I’m certain Sacre (pictured below) will stay fine and will be disappointed if he doesn’t win (he’s a monster!), but I wouldn’t even consider backing him at his price and just look forward to seeing this race unfold.

 

After today I may just give up (on life), but quite fancy Lambro tomorrow in the Topham. He has some very smart looking form in Ireland having won his debut before finishing a very respectable 3.5L 2nd behind Flemenstar over 16f (arguably too short) and on soft/heavy ground (he's by Milan and I think he wants better ground given his form).

He followed this up with a 3L or so 3rd behind Last Instalment (now rated 152 and would probably be higher had he not picked up an injury), with the 150 rated Call The Police splitting the pair.

In Bobs Worth's RSA on good ground he was beaten 30L in 6th at the finish but if you watch the race he ran very well imo before tiring (3m trip too far) and fading away. He followed up with a facile victory in soft ground over 18f at Punchestown before being pu...t away for the season.

Returning in February this year he ran in heavy ground back at Punchestown where he ended up around 6L 4th in the Alderwood/Pires race mentioned yesterday (arguably a decent result in unfavourable conditions). His only other run came again in soft ground and he ran poorly, but I'd be happy to put a line through that.

In 7 chase starts, aside from the RSA, he has never gone off bigger than 7/2 and has gone off odds on or fav a good few times, suggesting he's highly regarded. He's off 143 and I think on better ground at this intermediate trip, this Gr2 winning hurdler has a decent chance of running better than his price may suggest.

1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Paddypower/Skybet)

 

Cheltenham Festival winner At Fishers Cross (pictured above) will no doubt be a hot favourite in the Grand Sefton with an OR of 152, but I’d like to take him on as I think he’s at his best when there is considerable cut in the ground. 2 horses that I like are Road To Riches and Imperial Leader. The former has looked impressive so far and falls into the “could be anything” category, but has not yet been tried on ground better than soft so I probably won’t risk siding with him, though 8/1 could look very big if he does cope with it.

Imperial Leader is the one I’m going to be on as I think there’s more to come and his price is 5 times the size of Noel Meade’s raider. He wouldn’t be a confident selection, but although by Flemensfirth, I think he may actually improve for this spring ground. He ran well to finish 2^nd in both his bumper starts when very immature, before winning when upped in trip on his hurdles debut on reappearance. The horse he beat hasn’t run since but had previously won a Point and 2 bumpers, so he could be half decent. Imperial Leader’s next run was impressive as he ran over 2m (an inadequate trip) in a competitive affair at Cheltenham won by Melodic Rendezvous. Nigel Twiston Davies’ horse was only a 4yo yet gave weight to many of the field and although seemingly outpaced, he showed good attitude to be beaten just 5.5L having stayed on well to the line. The winner has gone on to win Gr1 and Listed races and the 3^rd, 5^th and 7^th have all won since, so the form looks very smart.

Imperial Leader was slightly disappointing when 9L 3^rd next time (though the 2^nd won next time) and when beaten a long way on handicap debut (though in a Gr3 affair), though these races were again in soft and heavy ground. If he makes the expected improvement for a sounder surface I think he could run a big race tomorrow and certainly prove his current price to be too big.

0.25pt e/w @ 40/1 (Paddypower)

 

Though never likely to get too involved in a Mares Bumper, 2 at prices could improve for better ground tomorrow. Centasia hosed up on debut on good ground and subsequently joined David Pipe (pictured above) for £100k (I think), winning a 14f race just a fortnight later, beating a subsequent winner in 2nd, and Oscar Hoof in 3rd (who had previously hacked up in only start). In her only other start to date she wasn't too impressive in heavy ground when finishing around 10L 5th in a Listed event at Sandown, but was fairly green and stayed on well at the end. She's by Presenting so tomorrow's surface should bring about some improvement. She dons a first time tongue tie (make of that what you will).

0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (various)

The other is Kim Bailey's Supreme Present who is also by Presenting. She won easily on debut and although the form is nothing, she couldn't have done it much more impressively. She has looked one paced in both starts since (understandable as likely to want a trip in time) but both were on soft ground, and she wasn't beaten miles. Good ground could see her improve, Jason Maguire (pictured below) is back on, and whilst looking to have a lot to do, she's a big enough price to risk a small investment.

0.25pt e/w @ 33/1 (various)

 

 

SUMMARY:

 

3.40pm - LAMBRO - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Paddypower/Skybet)

 

4.15pm - IMPERIAL LEADER - 0.25pt e/w @ 40/1 (Paddypower)

 

5.25pm - CENTASIA  - 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (various)

             - SUPREME PRESENT - 0.25pt e/w @ 33/1 (various)