Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

We may still be a good few weeks away from the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup but I think it’s fair to say the race is shaping up to be a cracker as contenders on both sides of the Irish Sea have been staking their claims, some better than others, for that big prize in March. Whether you’re a fan of the old guard (Long Run’s inclusion ironic in that the Gold Cup and double King George winner is still only an 8yo) or the new crop of potential champions, it certainly looks like being a race to savour and the next few weeks could be  quite interesting with the Irish renewing rivalries in the Hennessy at Leopardstown and some of the English aiming for the likes of the Argento Chase at Cheltenham and the Denman Chase at Newbury.

 

What better place to start than a previous winner of the race in Long Run, a French bred who appeared to have the world at his feet when bursting on the scene with a facile victory in the Feltham at Kempton. He followed up with another easy win at Warwick before finishing 3^rd in the RSA in March. Although flopping when highly touted for the PaddyPower Gold Cup on his reappearance as a 2^nd season chaser, he confirmed that earlier promise by winning the King George at Christmas before adding a coveted Gold Cup to his CV when beating those 2 all time greats Kauto Star and Denman in the 2011 Festival showpiece. It has been far from plain sailing since but Long Run showed he was still a very good horse when giving 10lb and a beating to stable mate Burton Port in the Denman Chase at Newbury before disappointing when only managing 3^rd behind Synchronised and The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham in the spring. Beaten again on reappearance by Silviniaco Conti (a very good horse whose Gold Cup credentials will be discussed below) he was always expected to improve considerably for it and did so to regain the King George a month later. The 7/1 looks slightly overpriced given he has been placed in all 24 of his races under rules and is a 4 time Gr1 winner, but whilst I think he has a fair chance of going close, I think he won the King George because the conditions didn't suit many of his rivals. There would however, be worse 8/1 each way shots than Long Run (pictured below).

 

Another who finished behind Synchronised in last year’s renewal was David Bridgewater’s The Giant Bolster. He’s an interesting candidate and shocked many last March, particularly given he’s only won once in a race over a distance of more than 2m5f, and that was a 2m7f affair at Worcester as a novice. In the aftermath of last year’s race I was sceptical to say the least regarding the strength of the race, believing Long Run failed to run his race and was never right after such a tough race first time out. I still feel that way but credit where it’s due as The Giant Bolster did fairly well to finish 7 lengths 3^rd behind Silviniaco Conti in the Charlie Hall in ground that would have been softer than ideal. His subsequent Kempton run can be ignored as the ground was appalling and he was never travelling. I don’t think he’s up to winning what is likely to be a very competitive race, but I do think he’s better than he’s been able to show so far this season and will improve for better ground (if we ever get any!).

 

Willie Mullins has a very smart prospect who also has good ground form at the Cheltenham Festival and that is Gigginstown’s exciting 7yo Sir Des Champs (pictured above). After winning on his Irish debut he was given a cracking ride by Emmet Mullins to win the Martin Pipe by half a length at the Festival, running just twice more over hurdles before being put away which indicates how highly he is regarded by connections. Kept away from the bigger novice races, he racked up 3 victories (including 2 Gr2s) before lining up back at Cheltenham for the Jewson and justified a big gamble to win fairly cosily by 4 and a half lengths. The manner in which he won oozed class and his Champion Trainer was quick to tout him as a future Gold Cup horse, and he took a 25f Gr1 at Punchestown to end the season unbeaten with big things expected on his return. He’s raced twice since and not won either, somewhat disappointing followers but at the same time still suggesting he is a live contender for the big one. He's likely to have needed the run when beaten by a race fit Flemenstar but his jumping was far from accomplished in the Lexus at Leopardstown, though he stayed on strongly to take 4^th and was beaten just ¾ of a length. That bodes well for his Gold Cup chances over the extended trip as he looked to have plenty left in the tank and on better ground (hopefully) with a cleaner round of jumping he looks one who will be there at the business end of the race. The 5/1 about him is short enough given the way he jumped last time but his records at Cheltenham and on good ground both read 2/2 so it’s fair to assume he'll improve if granted those conditions and his excellent handler will surely have him at his best come March.

 

The other strong fancy from the Emerald Isle is the aforementioned Flemenstar (pictured above) who has taken to chasing like a duck to water, having won 7 on the bounce since finishing 2^nd on his debut over fences, accruing an aggregate winning distance of 70 lengths! He has pace to burn and is more than capable of winning Gr1s over 2m but the fact that he’s never won over further than 2m4f does instill a slight doubt over his stamina and he didn’t appear to have much left at the end of the Lexus having travelled like an absolute dream. I personally think his optimum trip is that of the Ryanair but Peter Casey appears not to respect that race and would rather drop to 2m and take on Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase if they don’t go for the Gold Cup. He is apparently not the best of travellers, which would be another worry for at the Festival, and he seems and is bred to be best suited by soft ground so if the ground is good in March, there would be enough doubts over his chances.

 

Ryanair mogul Michael O’Leary (pictured above) and his Gigginstown operation could go into the Gold Cup with a double pronged attack as Sir Des Champs may be joined by RSA 2^nd and Lexus 2^nd First Lieutenant. Another with course form having finished a short head 2^nd in the 2011 Neptune behind future Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby, this Mouse Morris inmate made a somewhat lacklustre transition to the larger obstacles in winning just 2 of his 7 novice chase starts last season, both of which were in fairly uncompetitive Gr3 affairs. He did however, improve considerably back at Cheltenham in the spring to finish just 2 and a half lengths behind current Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth in the RSA, which bodes well as he has proven a liking for Prestbury Park and better ground (unsurprising given he’s by Presenting). The other positive to take from this season is that he has appeared to run to a higher level over these winter months having not doing so in previous years, which can only be a good thing if he produces the so far annual spring improvement. Some have worries over his stamina and feel he would be best suited by the Ryanair (a race sponsored by his owners company) which is a fair comment given he had the toe to go with a future Champion Hurdle winner in his novice season. However, the likes of Denman, War of Attrition and Ballabriggs are all by the same sire as First Lieutenant and they certainly had stamina aplenty so you’d expect him to be fine over the extended trip having stayed 3m in that stamina sapping ground at Leopardstown. For a horse who is proven at Cheltenham, proven on the likely good ground, and who is bred to stay the trip, I think 12/1 is a fair price for an each way bet.

 

The hero of the Lexus Chase (arguably the race of the festive period) was in fact the Paul Nicholls trained Tidal Bay (pictured above). Now those of you who follow this blog will have read my feelings on the horse, and the training performance behind him, as one of my racing highlights of last year; but that doesn’t mean I fancy him to take this illustrious crown. If I’m honest, I don’t think he’ll even line up in this race and can see him taking on the best staying hurdlers on the Thursday instead. He's almost certain to stay the trip but I think his trainer may be right in saying that on good ground they may go a bit quick for him to be competitive over fences and although he’d certainly be staying on all the way to the line, I think he’d be left too much to do in the early parts of the race (he was niggled along for most of the 3m in the Lexus even in testing ground).

 

Before I get to the 2 I fancy most to be victorious and crowned King of the staying chase division, it's worth mentioning a couple of others who could take their place. Imperial Commander (pictured above) needs no introducing as another former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. He burst a blood vessel and pulled up in Long Run’s Gold Cup, but prior to that his 3 most recent visits to Prestbury Park were most fruitful, bringing home a PaddyPower Gold Cup, a Ryanair and a Gold Cup. In short, he loves the course and has won a total of 6 races there. However, he has been off nearly 2 years now and although he goes best when fresh, he's now a 12yo and so wouldn’t be my idea of the winner but could run a nice race in the Argento in a fortnight. Athough likely to have his work cut out against Bobs Worth, it will be nice to see a former champion back in action and he has a nice chance of making the frame. Grands Crus is may go this route but although he stayed 3m behind Big Bucks in the World Hurdle, I think a fast run Ryanair would be ideal for him and would hope connections drop him in trip to contest that race. Captain Chris was never my idea of a Gold Cup winner but his run behind Long Run in the King George somewhat surprised me and did prove he has a fair amount of stamina. My fear for him is that he's better right handed, but he won an Arkle at Cheltenham so has to be of consideration given he's won at the course and has the proven stamina any Gold Cup winner will need. The final mention has to go to last season’s fairytale horse, Hunt Ball. Another you may have read about in my post on 2012 racing highlights, it would take a brave man to rule this horse out of anything! His runs this season can be ignored as he’ll much prefer better ground, and although not having won over 3m to date, he was staying on in the Bowl at Aintree so he’s probably the one horse who may not surprise if he improved considerably.

 

Plenty of candidates who will no doubt run massive races on March 15^th, but the 2 I think have the most solid profiles for the race are yet to come. The first of these is the very solid 3/1 favourite Bobs Worth (pictured above), who although by no means unexposed, looks well worth his current price in my opinion. He’s 6/6 going left handed; 4/4 at Cheltenham (including Cheltenham Festival wins in both the 2011 Albert Bartlett and the 2012 RSA); and has a record of 8 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third from 11 career runs. These figures are remarkable and given that he won this season’s Hennessy off 160 (beating Tidal Bay, though in receipt of 6lb) and is still a progressive, lightly raced 8yo, you would have to think he is very deserving of his place at the top of the market.

 

 

The other horse I’m very keen about is my favourite horse in training (as regular blog readers will know) and that is Ditcheat inmate Silviniaco Conti (pictured above). In short, I love him. This 7yo son of Dom Alco won my heart when hosing up in the Persian War at Chepstow, beating subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris in the process. After a fair season hurdling for a certain chaser in the making he was put away to mature before embarking on a career over fences in the autumn. Reappearing at Chepstow he was by no means given a hard time, finishing 3rd behind Cue Card and jumping impeccably. With that educational introduction under his belt he stepped up next time to take the Rising Stars at Wincanton by 25 lengths on the bridle, again perfect over his fences. Some feel he disappointed in finishing 2^nd to imperious Feltham winner Grands Crus but given Nicholls has since stated he doesn’t feel that track suits (hence skipping this season’s King George), it suggests he did well and he was staying on right to the line. After running poorly at Ascot he was given a break and sidestepped Cheltenham before returning to demolish the field at Aintree, making Champion Court (who chased home Sir Des Champs at Cheltenham) look fairly ordinary. I felt from the start of last season that Conti would improve considerably on anything he did as a novice as he still had plenty to learn, and he justified my excitement by winning the Charlie Hall impressively on reappearance. The acid test came on his only other start to date when stepped up to Gr1 company to take on Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He didn’t disappoint and won under a smart ride from Ruby Walsh who made all in a steadily run affair, proving this is a horse to be reckoned with and connections immediately stated he was Gold Cup bound. The doubters claim he’s merely a “flat track bully” and unproven at Cheltenham, but I think he ran well on his only visit to Prestbury Park. He has also won at Chepstow which is another undulating, left handed course that somewhat mirrors Cheltenham (without such a steep finish). He has run well on all types of going; is a progressive 7yo; is arguably the best jumper of a fence in the race; and is trained by Paul Nicholls, the master of trainers. Ruby Walsh (pictured below with the boss) is likely to ride which is, in my opinion, the reason he hopes Tidal Bay goes the World Hurdle route. Granted I'm probably a little biased, but I’m certain there is more to come from this one and he could be the next superstar to come out of Manor Farm Stables.

 

To summarise, it looks a hugely competitive race and the Irish challenge, in my humble opinion, looks likely to come from the Gigginstown pair of Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant, both of whom are proven around Cheltenham and love better ground. They look far stronger than the Irish staying chasers of recent years, but will need to be if they are to topple the mighty English contingent that could be made up of around 5 or 6 genuine contenders. I wouldn’t like to oppose Long Run given his super-impressive consistency and the fact that he stays all day, but would be more confident in backing either Bobs Worth or Silviniaco Conti. They are both progressive and will no doubt be picking up a number of big prizes between them over the next few years, but with the Nicholls horse 4 points bigger, I’d be siding with him each way at the widely available 7/1 (NRNB). Bobs Worth is only big enough for a win bet which I wouldn’t be 100% confident of in a race of this nature but in any case it is very much a race to be enjoyed, and one that can’t come soon enough!

 

SILVINIACO CONTI   7/1  e/w  (NRNB)

 

 

Increase in Prize Money for Elite Races

 

“I’m not entering him in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the prize money isn’t worth it”.

 

How many owners will you hear utter this statement? I shall tell you – none! In which case, why continue to increase the already excessive prize money allocated to such illustrious and well supported races? Could this funding not be used to benefit the sport in other ways? How about increasing levels of prize money for the lowest levels of racing?

 

To hear that prize money in racing has increased will always be music to the ears of both those who work in the industry and those who simply enjoy racing. Higher prize pools generally mean higher class of horses on show which is obviously positive, and it is good to hear that certain lower levels of racing have had their prize funds increased. But I fail to appreciate how much of a difference will be made by adding an extra £50,000 to the £500,000 already on offer for the winner of the Gold Cup, and an extra £30,000 to both the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase prizes. Horses competing in low grade handicaps can often win around £1,500, which, once deducting jockey fees, entry fees, trainers/stable staff cut, cost of diesel and other related costs, will often not even cover a month’s training fees! I appreciate that those owners with horses competing in the upper echelons of the sport are likely to have invested a larger proportion of capital to acquire their horses and so expect a decent return should they be successful, but I strongly feel that this gulf between the 2 extremes of racing is unhealthy for the sport in general and is similar to that which now exists within football whereby a number at the bottom level are being forced out of business whilst those at the top afford great luxuries.

 

As with any sport, the bottom is vital to the future of the top. Whilst many of the horses in low grade races will never achieve more than that level, it is still imperative that these races exist as they make up a far higher percentage of total number of races than the big money races. If horses are not there to compete in smaller races, racecourses won’t be able to stage a great number of the meetings they currently do (some racecourses aren’t fortunate enough to host any major races) and will seriously struggle remain a going concern, which will lead to more closures like Hereford and Folkestone.

 

 

From both ownership and racecourse perspectives, surely a more effective alternative would be to divide the additional funding across lower class races, as this could help to instigate a number of outcomes. With more prize money on offer for lower class races it could initiate an increase in the number of horses in training (as there would be more appealing prizes on offer) and attract more competitive and higher quality entries at smaller meetings, which should help to improve attendances as racing fans will be more inclined to part with their cash to see better horses in action. This should, in theory, lead to an increase in racecourse turnover which can be used to boost future prize funds, but also enables courses to improve the facilities on offer to race goers, therefore improving the overall customer experience which would hopefully continue the cycle in attracting more visitors. Although not as high profile an arena for sponsors (Betfair used as an example pictured above) to target, these smaller meetings at smaller courses still receive national press coverage (online, TV and newspapers) and so represent an additional opportunity to promote brands as the companies are already receiving great levels of exposure at the Cheltenham Festival from the huge sponsorship deals they already have in place. The other crucial benefit of this proposed idea is that in attracting greater attendances, these new or more frequent visitors are more likely to develop their passion for the sport. Increasing racing’s audience is vital to the future viability and success of the sport, so the powers that be must do all they can to attract new people.

 

These are merely my own, probably narrow minded and biased views, but I do believe that the future of the industry would be brighter should the currently deprived (in terms of prize money) levels of racing be awarded increased financial backing and provide greater incentive for prospective new owners, particularly given the expense they must go to if they wish to become involved in racehorse ownership. Please feel free to comment if you have an opinion on this issue as views would be much appreciated.