Cheltenham Festival - Day Three

Another day enjoyed at Cheltenham and a slightly more successful one with the first 2 home in the first. Went downhill thereafter but some e/w money in the Coral Cup meant it wasn’t too bad. Dynaste is perceived by some to be a “good thing” in the Jewson and he may well be, but he’s no value and one I think could run a big race is the Willie Mullins trained Aupcharlie. Mullins’ yard is obviously red hot so far this week and this horse has course/Festival form having finished 3^rd in the Champion Bumper 2 years ago. I think he’ll improve for the drop in trip and better ground as he’s a strong traveller, and at 6/1 he looks a solid e/w selection to try and take on the favourite with in the 1.30pm.

 

At 2.05pm, the Pertemps is as much a minefield as usual. Sam Winner has been the hype horse but Paul Nicholls hasn’t had a winner so far and following hype horses was my downfall in the Neptune with Pont Alexandre flopping, so I’m going to take him on with Ballybough Pat at 14/1. He finished 2^nd to a seriously good horse in Wonderful Charm at Chepstow in the Persian War (I’ll mention that again soon....) before being touched off by that old boy Fair Along at Newbury. His other run was in a Gr1 and he wasn’t totally disgraced so I think he’ll run a nice race here. He is a chaser in the making and I think will be a stone or so better over the bigger obstacles next year, but he could be up to defying this mark of 137 over timber. Others worthy of note are According To Trev whose connections believe he’s on a nice mark, and Close House who appears to have been targeting this race (it was his only handicap entry this week and he’s been put away since winning at Christmas) and has course form after finishing 2^nd here before Christmas. However, the other horse I'll be backing is Top Of The Range who is by Presenting and ran a massive race behind African Gold in heavy ground at Newbury considering he needs this better ground. He won last time but I think he still has a fair amount to come so will have an e/w bet at 10/1 to go with Ballybough Pat.

 

I’m a big fan of Michael O’Leary and he has a big chance of winning the race his company sponsor tomorrow in the Ryanair at 2.45pm! First Lieutenant looks to have rock solid claims having won a Neptune (beating the following season’s Champion Hurdle winner) and finishing 2^nd to Bobs Worth (now Gold Cup favourite) in last year’s RSA. He has gears and stays, a great combination to possess over this intermediate trip, and he could take all the beating. I’m also a big fan of Cue Card which presents a big dilemma for this race as I think he is also a seriously talented beast. He has form tied to all the top horses and although not staying in the King George, 2m5f on better ground is much more feasible for him. I’ll be going “no bet” I think as there’s little value in either of them, but it will be an interesting clash as I’d guess the Gigginstown representative will be ridden very prominently (possibly even making the running) in an attempt to stretch the stamina of Colin Tizzard’s animal. Champion Court is another I’ve always liked, though I’m not sure he’s of the very highest standard, and I’m sure he will be ridden as he was in the Jewson last year which will almost certainly guarantee it is a stamina sapping race. The likes of Albertas Run (multiple festival winner), Riverside Theatre (winner of this race last year) and For Non Stop are no mugs and this looks to be a very competitive race.

 

The feature race of the day is the World Hurdle at 3.20pm and I’m hoping this is where Champion Trainer, Paul Nicholls, can open his account for the week. As mentioned above, Wonderful Charm won the Persian War at Chepstow (the same race won by Silviniaco Conti a couple of years ago) and was apparently not even close to being 100% fit that day. He has since had a wind op and connections seem confident he is a serious horse, which he’ll need to be to make this jump in class. He must have had a solid chance in the Coral Cup off 149 if they fancy him in this race, so it’s worth noting they have skipped that for this Gr1 affair as he must be showing enough at home to warrant this engagement. I’ve always loved Oscar Whisky and the more the ground dries out for him the better, but he’s plenty short enough given he’s not exactly a certainty to fully stay the trip. However, I do think he will stay as he appeared to see out this trip on much worse ground in the Cleeve Hurdle and I think he can be ridden more positively now. Peddlers Cross is a horse I’ve never been too keen on, and Reve De Sivola is far from consistent (though he looks much better this season), so I think I’ll chance an e/w punt on Wonderful Charm at 10/1.

 

The Byrne Group is next up at 4pm and it’s hard to see past the Pipe gamble on Ballynagour. He improved a lot to win on his stable debut and I’m guessing Mr Pipe was delighted before that race when he saw the mark his recruit had been allotted. He travelled superbly in that race and although he’s had a huge hike in the weights, I think he could still have a bit in hand and will side with him at 4/1 for a small bet as nothing else jumps off the page. Hunt Ball is interesting now the ground is drying up as we know he can carry that mammoth weight, and Vino Griego is progressive so could improve again. The other horse I'll be backing is Sweet My Lord of that man Willie Mullins again. He was a talking horse for the handicap hurdles at last year's Festival but the yard weren't right last year and he's now 8lb lower than that over fences so surely has a squeak at

 

The 4.40pm is the race I will be having 2 decent bets in – the Kim Muir. Super Duty looks a very worthy 5/1 shot with excellent amateur Derek O’Connor booked as he has course form and I think he’ll stay fine. However, at 14/1 I feel Galaxy Rock is the value in the race as he also ticks a number of boxes. He has run some nice races at Prestbury Park (and we all know how important that course form can be!) and should be fine on the ground so with leading amateur JT McNamara booked I think a big run could be on the cards as Jonjo is due a winner! He is only 2lb higher than when beaten a length here in October but is also only 4lb higher than when winning nicely here the year before, so it wouldn’t be a big surprise should he find the necessary extra to make a case for himself at a nice price.

 

I still fancy Arabella Boy in the Cross Country (if it’s on) with a saver on Any Currency, for the reasons posted on Tuesday’s blog.

 

Good luck! (and apologies for lack of pictures but I'm tired!!)

Cheltenham Festival - Day Two

Another day of top class racing on Wednesday opens at 1.30pm with the 4 mile NH chase in which I think in form Willie Mullins has another live chance with classy staying novice chaser Back In Focus. He has Graded form and could be a cut above these, plus he looks a dour stayer so should relish the test. He isn’t a big price but I think he is priced correctly and he’ll take the beating. Of the rest, Nina Carberry (pictured below) rides 8/1 shot Tofino Bay and although a 10yo, he could have a squeak as he has beaten Aupcharlie and very nearly beat Arkle runner up Baily Green.

 

The Neptune at 2.05pm is potentially my favourite race this week as I think there are some seriously talented horses in there. Pont Alexandre doesn’t look much of a price at 6/4 in a race that has plenty of class horses, but if he is as good as Mullins/Walsh think, he could win this impressively. He is without doubt a chaser for the future (he has been compared to the mighty Denman) but it has been suggested he is the most exciting novice hurdler in Clonsutton since a certain Hurricane Fly, so it would seem worthwhile taking note! The New One and Taquin Du Seuil are also horses I like a lot and will both make cracking chasers. The New One got outstayed in testing conditions last time but he showed a hugely impressive turn of foot and certainly has pace to burn which could be of great help in the drying ground (I also don’t think he was given the best of rides that day as he went for home a bit too early in my opinion). Taquin has form behind My Tent Or Yours and made the Henderson horse work hard that day, so he is certainly not out of place in this competitive heat. Chatterbox however, beat stable mate My Tent Or Yours (though I’d question that form) so is another who deserves a crack in this, but I think the other horse who could serve it up to the Mullins favourite with The New One and Taquin is the Gigginstown owned Rule The World. Davy Russell has compared his profile with that of First Lieutenant (who most will know won this race....) and he’s another who falls into the “could be anything” category. Though plenty of very promising horses in this, I’d be siding with Pont Alexandre (pictured below) and The New One (though a bug in the yard does worry me slightly), but don’t think I could split them. I love both and will go “no bet” to just enjoy the race, but think either will give a cracking run for your money.

At 2.40pm, the RSA looks fairly competitive and it’s hardly surprising to see a Mullins horse at the top of the market again. Boston Bob always looked like making a chaser but had a great season novice hurdling which culminated in a 2^nd to the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze at last season’s Festival. I think the step back up to 3m will bring about a great deal of improvement from this young chaser and he could leave this season’s form behind. That said, I would be happy to take him on with something at an each way price. Unioniste and Hadrian’s Approach both hold strong claims after they finished in that order at Newbury last time. Both camps have stated their horse has come on plenty for that run so it’s hard to work out whether the form will hold up or be reversed, but Hadrian’s Approach would certainly need to have brushed up his jumping to have any chance in this. Goulanes is another with claims (I think his form with Super Duty will be franked when that hoses up in the Kim Muir on Thursday) and although Real Milan pulled up last time, I think that may be worth putting a line through as he had previously looked smart. However, I’m going to have an e/w punt in this on Houblon Des Obeaux at 10/1 (though he has been much bigger) as I think form tied to the likes of Harry Topper, Captain Conan and Rocky Creek is of a high standard. He looks like he’ll stay all day and that is important in this race as it is often fiercely run affair. He has won over course and distance over hurdles which is always a plus for Cheltenham Festival credentials, and his trainer Venetia Williams (pictured below) has been flying this year so I think he could run a nice race at a double figure price.

 

At 3.20pm, Sprinter Sacre wins the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Onto the 4.00pm and a 28 runner handicap to get stuck into with a good few I think have live chances. Pendra I feel is rightly marked up at 7/1 as he is crying out for this trip (he’s by Old Vic). He is off 139 and I am certain he won’t be for much longer as his form with Melodic Rendezvous is very smart considering it wasn’t his optimum trip. Master Of The Sea and Fiveforthree are both 12/1 shots I think have chances, but for very different reasons. The former has recently changed hands but has been very progressive this season and even won after being bought. He could have more to come and although I won’t back him (particularly with the yard bug worry), I wouldn’t be rushing to lay him. Fiveforthree is a different sort as he has proven form in the book having won Gr1 races before a long spell on the sidelines. He also has that all important course and distance form which is vital, and although taking it for granted he retains a degree of his old ability after injury troubles, Partrick Mullins has said he is very well and expected to run a big race. He is thrown in on some of his old form and with the yard opening the week with a treble on the first day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one run a big race. 2 others at slightly bigger prices are Barbatos at 20/1 (who has also been off injured but has a form behind the classy Fingal Bay and Invictus, and a course win to his name so could be well handicapped after an acceptable reappearance which he’d no doubt have needed) and Hollow Tree at 25/1 (who actually beat the very smart Countrywide Flame at Christmas last season and hails from a yard who happened to have a well handicapped horse in this last year called Son Of Flicka). Of the lot I may get on a couple, but Pendra  (pictured below before switching to the ownership of JP McManus whose colours he'll be donning tomorrow) and Fiveforthree would be the 2 I am most keen on.

 

The Fred Winter at 4.40pm is another big runner handicap but there aren’t many who jump out at me in this one (aside from the Nicholls pair ridden by Walsh/Jacob). I am drawn towards the John Ferguson pair of Bordoni and Ruacana and will be having a few quid on both. The reason for this revolves around how bullish the Henderson camp has been about the chances of Megalypos, claiming he is well handicapped. Though his stable debut, Megalypos was beaten 6 lengths by Ruacana at Chepstow off level weights, and although getting 2lb tomorrow (not that 2lb would really suggest a 6lb turnaround), Jack Quinlan claims 3lb off Ruacana. Ruacana then ran with credit over in Ireland to finish around 9 lengths behind the impressive Our Connor who is obviously Triumph bound, so a mark of 139 (136 with the claim) could well be lenient if the Henderson horse is well handicapped as is to be believed. Megalypos is currently 10/1 and Ruacana is 20/1 so I think he’s worth an e/w bet on value grounds. Given the above, I’ll have to have a small bet on the Bordoni as it would appear that Denis O’Regan has opted for him ahead of Ruacana (pictured below) and so he may too be expected to go well tomorrow.

 

The day ends with a typically competitive renewal of the Champion Bumper in which I think you could pick 10 and still go home skint! Sgt Reckless will be carrying my money as I’m told he is a seriously good horse. Reports have been very good (apparently he has been doing some great homework with a very highly rated flat horse) and the yard seem extremely bullish about his chances (though when don’t yards hype up their horses?!). The other big bonus in my view is that Richard Hughes (pictured below) takes the ride – a very very very good flat jockey who is experience enough to cope with NH racing. Others worth mentioning are: Regal Encore who is owned by JP and “could be anything” as he was very impressive in beating not a lot; Fascino Rustico who cost £310,000 and has had a wind op since a disappointing debut; Le Vent D’Antan who is trained by the same connections who sold Cheltenian on before his win in this race and are very clued up with these sorts; and Milo Milan who I think could turn out to be a very very good horse for Evan Williams. I will also mention Sir Alex Ferguson’s runner Im Fraam Govan as although I don’t think he’ll be winning, if he did it would ruin my week as he took my breath away in winning a hot race with consummate ease on debut before flopping on the all weather. The more it dries out the better for him and I’ll probably end up having a stupidly loyal e/w saver on him at 50/1 but Sgt Reckless is hopefully the money train!

 

 

 

Cheltenham Festival - Day One

It’s here!! The next four days are better than Christmas, New Year, Birthday and Easter combined! 4 days of the very best racing around, at the best course in the country! As always it’s very competitive and there’s unlikely to be anything I’d plough into as “good things” don’t exist, but hopefully there’s a bit of value to be found!

The Supreme at 1.30pm means we don’t have to wait long for a competitive affair as this looks one of the hottest renewals in years! AP McCoy rides the very short priced (too short if you ask me!) My Tent Or Yours and thinks it is by far his best chance of the week. He won impressively at Newbury last time in the Betfair Hurdle but that was a slowly run affair and tomorrow’s race will be nothing of the sort with the strong chance of a good pace on (probably set by Champagne Fever who could make all). Though MTOY is a speedy sort and could well improve in a quicker race, there are some seriously good horses in this and at 6/4 I’d be willing to take him on with some value. Where to start?! Cheltenian has course form having won the Champion Bumper 2 years ago, but hadn’t run since until just being touched off on reappearance 3 weeks ago. He could escape the “bounce” but is unproven on soft ground so I wouldn’t want to back him. Jezki ran in the bumper last year without impressing but looks a serious horse this time around having won his last 4 races on ground he supposedly isn’t best suited by. That, however, would be the worry, as he encounters soft ground again and although proven on it having won well, Barry Geraghty has said that it wouldn’t be his optimum conditions so at 9/2 in a competitive race I’d take him on. Dodging Bullets would have probably been my pick on better ground as he has solid course form and is fairly experienced for a novice (he is also the highest rated bar the short fav), but with soft ground unlikely to suit I feel there are 3 horses worth focusing on. Champagne Fever is another Champion Bumper winner having taken last year’s race for Willie Mullins but has been a mixed bag this season. He won on hurdles debut before being touched off by a length and a half behind Jezki at Christmas giving that horse 3lb (so he may have won off level weights). His next race was extremely disappointing but it later emerged he had a lung infection, and confirmed that flop could be written off when beating subsequent winner Bright New Dawn (the pair were a long way clear of 3^rd) next time out. He’s another that goes on soft but may be suited by better ground, and although I think he has a live chance (particularly with Ruby opting for him over Dodging Bullets) I think the other 2 I have in mind could have better chances. The first is Gigginstown representative Un Atout, another Mullins inmate, who I think epitomises the saying “he could be anything”. To date, he has won a bumper and 2 hurdle races, with the RP race comments for all 3 ending in “very easily”. With only 3 career starts he is open to any amount of improvement (which is exciting given he is already allotted a mark of 151!) and having proven he goes in wet conditions, the very talented Davy Russell looks to have a cracking chance to open his account for the week in the first race. He is currently around 7/1 and looks a solid e/w bet to me. The other horse I’ll have an interest on in the opener is the Oliver Sherwood trained Puffin Billy (pictured below) at 12/1 (though I’ve been with him since he was over double that!). This horse is a monster. If you put a line through his defeat last time when he had puss in his foot, he is 4/4, winning by a combined 36 lengths, and has barely come off the bridle. He is suited by the soft conditions and will stay every yard of the 2m as he could have gone for the Neptune if the ground was a bit quicker. Connections love him and although a very hot race, he looks worth an e/w saver at his double figure price.

 

The Arkle at 2.05pm is a lot more straight-forward to me: Simonsig (pictured below) wins, no bet. This horse looks different class and I’d be very disappointed if he can’t take this fairly weak renewal. Overturn is the obvious danger but Donald McCain appears to have ducked soft ground all season with his star. Arvika Ligeonniere could surprise a few as although not looking quick enough to go with the other 2, he does love soft ground so may run into 2^nd as he looks to have a touch of class that the other outsiders don’t.

 

On to the first handicap at the JLT at 2.40pm looks a minefield with 24 runners going to post.  Surprisingly I actually think the favourite, Our Mick (pictured below), isn’t actually a bad price at 5/1. He ran a cracker here last year and was running a massive race when coming down at Cheltenham on reappearance last time as I’m sure he would have beaten the hugely progressive Katenko. E/w terms would return stakes back if he places and I’m fairly confident he will, with a strong chance of winning. Though I’ll probably stick with the McCain horse, there are plenty of decent e/w alternatives at bigger prices, one of which is White Star Line. He finished 2^nd to Hunt Ball at last year’s Festival and is now 3lb lower so could run another big race and at 16/1 he’s a decent price. Nuts N Bolts is probably the horse I will back to go with Our Mick as I think there could be more to come from the Lucinda Russell trained 7yo. He races off a lovely 10st 8lb (lower weights always handy in testing conditions) and is well regarded by a trainer who had a winner here last season. He idled when winning narrowly last time so the result suggests he was less impressive than he really was, and at 25/1 I think he is one for a small stakes e/w saver. The other horse of note is Merry King who opts for this over the 4m race. He has been unlucky this season having been touched off a couple of times by decent horses, but should revel in this soft ground. Richie McClernon won this race on Alfie Sherrin last season and keeps the ride on Merry King as AP rides for JP, and McClernon could go very close again. I like to have a couple in Festival handicaps (you need to with 24 runners!) so may even back all 3 e/w as I feel they all have strong chances and expect more than 1 to make the frame.

 

The feature race comes at 3.20pm in the shape of the Champion Hurdle and it is no surprise to see former winner Hurricane Fly at the top of the market. He is loved by most of Ireland and trained/ridden by Mullins/Walsh so it’s fair to assume he has a strong chance. I haven’t always been a Hurricane Fly fan but I feel conditions really do suit him this year and he has a massive chance. He is very much suited by the soft conditions, but I feel even more so by the likelihood that there won’t be much pace on as there is no Overturn in there this time around. I actually think this coveted prize can only go to one of 2 horses, the other being Ditcheat inmate Zarkandar. He is a very slick jumper and is a much more accomplished horse this season having taken some nice pots along the way, particularly the Bula when beating Rock On Ruby and Grandouet. I would have preferred there to be more pace up front as it would have suited Daryl Jacob’s mount, but I don’t think the lack of such is certain to stop him and think that at 4/1 and bigger he has been the most solid e/w shot of the week as I can’t see him finishing out of the places. He is 7/2 now but I still think he’s worth a punt, and I’ve also taken advantage of the 5/1 offered by William Hill that Zarkandar and Silviniaco Conti (in the Gold Cup on Friday) both place. I think it could be the best bet of the week, and can see both winning their respective races. Grandouet has apparently not worked well this week which would put me off, though he’d have a chance on his run behind Zarkandar before Christmas. Rock On Ruby wears first time blinkers and although they don’t put me off him, the ground does. I’m hoping he tries to make all with Countrywide Flame so they go a decent clip which would help Zarkandar (pictured below). Of the rest, Cinders And Ashes won’t like the ground, Countrywide Flame I don’t think is of the same quality of the aforementioned, and the rest don’t count aside from Binocular who could surprise a few with a big run but he may find a couple too good. I wouldn’t go mad in this but may have a reverse forecast on the top 2.

 

The Cross Country race at 4pm is a race to watch and not punt for me. If I do have one for interest it will be either Bostons Angel as he looks much better this season; Any Currency as I think the trip will see him improve and he’s a nice price at 14/1; or Arabella Boy (pictured below) as I usually just side with specialist jockey Nina Carberry in these unconventional affairs.

 

The Mares Hurdle at 4.40pm is another race in which there doesn’t look to be a bet worth having. Quevega (pictured below) should win, she may not have been seen for nearly a year but never is and if she is herself then she should take this again. Une Artiste appears to love Cheltenham and is fine on the ground so could be next best (maybe worth a punt in the “w/o Quevega” market but looks a bit short in that at 2/1). The rest are decent horses but if Quevega is on a going day they shouldn’t trouble her, and although the slow pace last season meant they got closer to her than they should have, she still coasted clear and won smoothly.

 

The final race of the first day at 5.15pm is another competitive handicap chase with 20 runners, which means there should be some value about. Before the rain came, Carlito Brigante was my biggest fancy of the whole week (as previous followers will have read), but now the ground is soft I’d be looking elsewhere. Colour Squadron is an obvious “plot” for the race but his jumping doesn’t convince me and he could be found out around Prestbury Park, regardless of his seemingly favourable handicap mark, so I’d also oppose him at 11/2. The lowest priced horses I like in this are The Druids Nephew (pictured below) and Shangani at 7/1 and 8/1 respectably. The former ran a nose behind Hadrians Approach earlier in the season and that horse is running in the RSA this week so off 135 I think Andy Turnell’s horse could be nicely handicapped and he has gone in soft ground before so that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Shangani loves it soft and Venetia Williams has been on fire all season so it wouldn’t be a massive surprise should he continue to improve and go close off a 10lb higher mark than last season. However, with no massive fancy in the race it could be worth taking a risk on something at a bigger price such as Hazy Tom (16/1) or Bobowen (14/1). Charlie Longsdon has always spoken favourably of Hazy Tom and it’s worthy of note that this is the first time he is tried over further than 2m since going chasing. You would assume he wants the 2m4f as the whole season revolves around the Festival, so he could turn out to be “well in” on his handicap mark given it was earned based on his form over the minimum trip. Bobowen is more a loyal pick as I follow local trainer Dr Richard Newland, but he is not without a chance as he also seems to go better on soft ground and although running poorly at Cheltenham in October, he was progressive before that and ran well behind a good horse in a novice hurdle on his only other start since which could have put him right for a crack at this big prize. His shrew trainer has won at the Festival before and Nick Schofield is an excellent pilot so I’m hoping he’ll run a big race.

 

To summarise, although very competitive and liking a number of horses in most races, I’ve decided to go with (or the pin has decided to go with!):

1.30pm – Un Atout e/w @ 7/1 AND Puffin Billy e/w @ 12/1

 

2.05pm – Small forecast on Simonsig to beat Arvika Ligeonniere

2.40pm – Our Mick e/w @ 5/1 AND Merry King e/w @ 8/1 AND Nuts N Bolts e/w @ 25/1

3.20pm – Zarkandar e/w IF he touches 4/1 AND reverse forecast with Hurricane Fly + Zarkandar

4.00pm – Arabella Boy e/w @ 4/1 OR Any Currency @ 14/1

 

4.40pm – Small forecast on Quevega to beat Une Artiste

 

5.15pm – The Druids Nephew e/w @ 7/1 AND Bobowen e/w @ 12/1 OR Hazy Tom e/w @ 16/1