Aintree - Day 2

Bookies 1-0 Punters. A warning not to get involved? Or a prompt to search for more value? The latter I hope, as I intend to just have a couple of bigger priced each way selections for an added interest. Tomorrow could be equally as brutal a day, but as always a few catch the eye. Firstly the obvious, My Tent Or Yours (pictured below), who looks a “good thing” (though I thought Conti was today!) but is obviously not a working man's price. The Mildmay looks competitive and I’m certain Rocky Creek will turn out the best horse in the race over the next few years. He wasn’t too impressive last time but looked like he’d improve at least a stone for a left handed track. The only worry is that he’s supposedly Hennessy-bound next season so on a mark of 152 he would appear to already be on a nice mark for it. The return to a flat track could suit Dynaste well so I wouldn’t be getting involved in this one, but it certainly looks a race to keep a close eye on.

The Melling is probably my favourite race of the meeting as Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card are 2 of my favourite horses in training. Flemenstar drops to what I believe to be his optimum trip, and this could be an absolute corker. Finians Rainbow will appreciate this better ground but I think the trio are a cut above him now. I’m certain Sacre (pictured below) will stay fine and will be disappointed if he doesn’t win (he’s a monster!), but I wouldn’t even consider backing him at his price and just look forward to seeing this race unfold.

 

After today I may just give up (on life), but quite fancy Lambro tomorrow in the Topham. He has some very smart looking form in Ireland having won his debut before finishing a very respectable 3.5L 2nd behind Flemenstar over 16f (arguably too short) and on soft/heavy ground (he's by Milan and I think he wants better ground given his form).

He followed this up with a 3L or so 3rd behind Last Instalment (now rated 152 and would probably be higher had he not picked up an injury), with the 150 rated Call The Police splitting the pair.

In Bobs Worth's RSA on good ground he was beaten 30L in 6th at the finish but if you watch the race he ran very well imo before tiring (3m trip too far) and fading away. He followed up with a facile victory in soft ground over 18f at Punchestown before being pu...t away for the season.

Returning in February this year he ran in heavy ground back at Punchestown where he ended up around 6L 4th in the Alderwood/Pires race mentioned yesterday (arguably a decent result in unfavourable conditions). His only other run came again in soft ground and he ran poorly, but I'd be happy to put a line through that.

In 7 chase starts, aside from the RSA, he has never gone off bigger than 7/2 and has gone off odds on or fav a good few times, suggesting he's highly regarded. He's off 143 and I think on better ground at this intermediate trip, this Gr2 winning hurdler has a decent chance of running better than his price may suggest.

1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Paddypower/Skybet)

 

Cheltenham Festival winner At Fishers Cross (pictured above) will no doubt be a hot favourite in the Grand Sefton with an OR of 152, but I’d like to take him on as I think he’s at his best when there is considerable cut in the ground. 2 horses that I like are Road To Riches and Imperial Leader. The former has looked impressive so far and falls into the “could be anything” category, but has not yet been tried on ground better than soft so I probably won’t risk siding with him, though 8/1 could look very big if he does cope with it.

Imperial Leader is the one I’m going to be on as I think there’s more to come and his price is 5 times the size of Noel Meade’s raider. He wouldn’t be a confident selection, but although by Flemensfirth, I think he may actually improve for this spring ground. He ran well to finish 2^nd in both his bumper starts when very immature, before winning when upped in trip on his hurdles debut on reappearance. The horse he beat hasn’t run since but had previously won a Point and 2 bumpers, so he could be half decent. Imperial Leader’s next run was impressive as he ran over 2m (an inadequate trip) in a competitive affair at Cheltenham won by Melodic Rendezvous. Nigel Twiston Davies’ horse was only a 4yo yet gave weight to many of the field and although seemingly outpaced, he showed good attitude to be beaten just 5.5L having stayed on well to the line. The winner has gone on to win Gr1 and Listed races and the 3^rd, 5^th and 7^th have all won since, so the form looks very smart.

Imperial Leader was slightly disappointing when 9L 3^rd next time (though the 2^nd won next time) and when beaten a long way on handicap debut (though in a Gr3 affair), though these races were again in soft and heavy ground. If he makes the expected improvement for a sounder surface I think he could run a big race tomorrow and certainly prove his current price to be too big.

0.25pt e/w @ 40/1 (Paddypower)

 

Though never likely to get too involved in a Mares Bumper, 2 at prices could improve for better ground tomorrow. Centasia hosed up on debut on good ground and subsequently joined David Pipe (pictured above) for £100k (I think), winning a 14f race just a fortnight later, beating a subsequent winner in 2nd, and Oscar Hoof in 3rd (who had previously hacked up in only start). In her only other start to date she wasn't too impressive in heavy ground when finishing around 10L 5th in a Listed event at Sandown, but was fairly green and stayed on well at the end. She's by Presenting so tomorrow's surface should bring about some improvement. She dons a first time tongue tie (make of that what you will).

0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (various)

The other is Kim Bailey's Supreme Present who is also by Presenting. She won easily on debut and although the form is nothing, she couldn't have done it much more impressively. She has looked one paced in both starts since (understandable as likely to want a trip in time) but both were on soft ground, and she wasn't beaten miles. Good ground could see her improve, Jason Maguire (pictured below) is back on, and whilst looking to have a lot to do, she's a big enough price to risk a small investment.

0.25pt e/w @ 33/1 (various)

 

 

SUMMARY:

 

3.40pm - LAMBRO - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Paddypower/Skybet)

 

4.15pm - IMPERIAL LEADER - 0.25pt e/w @ 40/1 (Paddypower)

 

5.25pm - CENTASIA  - 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (various)

             - SUPREME PRESENT - 0.25pt e/w @ 33/1 (various)