Last weekend was a mixed bag. Certain results
were disappointing and I had more than my fair share of 2nds with Oscar Magic,
Aland Islands, Sin Bin and Join Together all hitting the crossbar as so to
speak. Join Together took my breath away in defeat, jumping the Grand National
fences like a seasoned pro before staying on like a train to lose out by a
whisker. Whether he’ll stay 4m+ is another question but he is certainly a
potentially exciting National candidate. On a more positive note, Araldur landed
the spoils at an SP of 10/1, before Little Josh made a great day a fantastic one for Nigel Twiston Davies when taking the Grand Sefton at 7/2,
though having opened up 8/1 in places just after being put up with Araldur on
here! Though disappointed by the 2nds and flops from Rangitoto and Tempo De
Cotte, these 2 winners more than covered the losses so it was alright in the
end.
This weekend we return to Cheltenham and
Friday looks a seriously competitive card. As I’ve said before on here I won’t
have a bet or put a horse up for the sake of it, so if a race is very
competitive or contains 2 or more horses I’m waiting for, I’d rather not have a
bet than pick one and be beaten by the other! Unfortunately that is again the
case at Cheltenham tomorrow, particularly in the Novice Chase and Novice
Hurdle. Hildsivini is a promising horse for Charlie Longsdon who should go on
over fences, but he faces no easy task in the 12.15pm where he’ll be taking on
the likes of Broadbackbob and Rebel Rebellion and has to give those rivals 3lb.
A race for watching I feel but certainly one to savour.
Next are 12 and 17 runner affairs respectively
and although I’ll be ducking the 12.45pm, I may have a small interest in the
1.20pm. Dark Lover ran a decent race last time in the hugely competitive Racing
Post Hurdle having previously won at the course in October. He may have
finished 7th but was only beaten 8 lengths and is partnered by Ruby Walsh this timee who, although not claiming 3lb, could find more improvement. Tom Du Lys would be
interesting on his French form (he beat Unioniste over hurdles) and his trainer
has stated they didn’t have much time before fitting him in a run at Sandown
(when flopping) so it could be worth writing that off. He has grown and looks
more the part now so may show a large degree of improvement and I’ll probably
wait and see the market before deciding whether or not to bet him or the
Nicholls horse (or neither!).
The 1.55pm isn’t a particularly appealing race
for me but Bradley catches the eye. He nearly won last time and has run well at
Prestbury Park a few times now, also proving himself in similar conditions. He
is up 5lb for his close 2nd but I have a feeling the first 3 home
that day could have more to come so he may be worth chancing as he has a lovely
racing weight of 10st 4lb. Course specialist Midnight Chase is the class horse
of the race but carrying top weight won’t be easy and his price is likely to be
skinny enough.
Hardly unexposed and he’s up 6lb for his win
last time, but I think Uncle Junior will pick up another x-country race in the
2.30pm tomorrow. If you re-watch that win he makes one serious mistake but
still travels like a dream and wins with great ease. Likely to be no price but Mullins
doesn’t send horses over for no reason and I think he could take this one.
The 3.05pm sees another competitive big
runner handicap field and Saint Roque immediately stands out after I had a
decent punt on him last time off a lenient mark of 118. He was travelling very
nicely that day and I feel could have taken the race if he hadn’t been brought
down, but is sure to be a short price as the cat is out of the bag now. Given that Saint Roque is trained by Paul
Nicholls, it is of serious note that Ruby Walsh is declared on Inish Island who
is trained by the aforementioned Willie Mullins. Obviously Ruby rides for both
trainers but it is usually worth noting when he chooses one of Willie’s over
one of Paul’s; particularly when believing the Nicholls horse to be well
handicapped. The other horse I like the look of is At Fishers Cross who
disposed of Salubrious very easily at Newbury the other week (much to the
disappointment of my wallet!!) and a 9lb rise may not stop him as I feel that
rival and Ardlui (who finished 3rd) were both well handicapped
themselves and the 3 were well clear of 4th. Again the market will
play a part in deciding whether or not to have a bet in this contest but the 3
all look like playing a large part in proceedings so I'll probably go each way about any that are 5/1 or bigger as they should make the frame whilst having a decent chance of winning so would be a safe bet. Maybe even perm the forecast/tricast.
The day closes with what I
believe to be the most competitive, and also my favourite, race on the card!
Not usually one to love novice hurdles, it is hard not to get excited over the
prospects of this one at 3.40pm. Mr Watson cost £215,000 at the sales, Melodic
Rendezvous ran 2nd behind Champagne Fever in a Gr1 bumper at
Punchestown, and Village Vic ran a cracker behind The New One at this course
not long ago..... And they’re the ones I don’t fancy!!! Nicky Henderson is
bidding for a 4 timer in this race having taken the past 3 renewals and Barry
Geraghty rides Royal Boy for his boss. He cost £150,000 at Goffs sale in 2011
and although a cracking chase prospect for the future, he hasn’t run for over
600 days having suffered a setback so he may need this. Eduard won nicely last
time but would need to improve a fair bit to take this hot contest and I’d
totally discard Dr Dreamy, which leaves just Valdez and Imperial Leader. Both
are horses I rate very highly and it would take a tough decision to split the
pair! Valdez surprised many when losing on hurdles debut but put things right
winning next time (Softsong in 2nd finished a close 3rd
in a Listed event at Sandown last weekend) and could make into a Supreme horse
come March so could take all the beating here. Imperial Leader, owned by the
same partnership that own a certain Imperial Commander, is also a lovely horse
who lost on debut to a decent sort but gave the race away through running so
keenly early on. Having finished 2nd in another bumper he was put
away and seemingly matured over the summer as he returned with an impressive
victory over a decent rival when upped in trip for his hurdles debut at Southwell.
Like Imperial Commander, he is out of Flemensfirth so will be wanting all of 3m
and fences in time so tomorrow’s trip could be on the short side (tomorrow's conditions could help make it more of a test of stamina), but he is
certainly a hugely exciting young prospect who could go to the very top!
Hopefully tomorrow morning’s
declarations for Saturday will be more kind and not pitch more than one of my
horses to follow against each other! But below is a summary of the horses I’ll
have in mind if the prices are right:
1.20pm – Dark Lover / Tom Du
Lys (prefer e/w but may bet if 3/1 or bigger)
1.55pm – Bradley (if an e/w
price)
2.30pm – Uncle Junior (NAP)
3.05pm – Saint Roque / Inish
Island / At Fishers Cross (bet any at e/w price)
3.40pm – Valdez / Imperial
Leader (if e/w price, may be value in hot contest)
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