New Years Day Horses of Note

EXETER

12.25 Florida Quays (more to come over obstacles)

1.30 Ambion Wood (could be near top class)

2.40 Gullinbursti (could be top class)

 

CATTERICK

12.40 Special Catch (decent form, should go in again)

1.45 Nicene Creed (has to win soon!)

3.30 Dungeel (beat a decent one easily last time)

 

FAKENHAM

2.30 Likearollingstone (good claimer offsets penalty)

How Do You Pick Just 5 - A Few Racing Highlights From 2012!

To pick just 5 racing highlights from 2012 is like picking your favourite member of Girls Aloud – not fair!! If I was to go through everything I’ve enjoyed in racing during the past year you would be celebrating the start of 2014 by the time you had finished reading it, so I’ve picked out 5 that were probably the most enjoyable or admirable:

 

Those of you who read this blog will already know I’m a member of Cheltenham Racing Club, and I must include having a winner as an “owner” in my racing highlights for 2012. Though only very small time, it is still a great buzz when one of the horses wins and we’ve been lucky enough to enjoy 4 this year! We had Kings Story at Newton Abbot, Keltic Crisis at Bangor, Is It Me at Perth, and Old Magic at Chepstow, but I’d have to say Old Magic (pictured below with us in the winners enclosure!) was the one I enjoyed most as I’d missed the first 3 through work and a holiday!! To be on course cheering one home is a fantastic feeling and I’ll never forget that day. Seeing him being saddled up (he looked in great nick!), chatting to jockey/trainer in the parade ring (avoiding one of his rivals who was trying to kick anything he could!), cheering him on and being presented the winners prize, before supping the complimentary champagne post-race (thanks Chepstow!). We had an amazing day from start to finish and I hope to enjoy a few more similar days in the (not too distant) future!

 

Another 2012 highlight has to be the “black aeroplane” that goes by the name of Sprinter Sacre! He always looked a chaser in the making but until he proved it we were always going to be watching closely – and boy did he prove it! Having won on debut and then again at Christmas, the superstar from Seven Barrows was always going to be high in the Arkle Chase market and he soon became the short priced favourite after demolishing a reasonable bunch of established horses in the Game Spirit at Newbury. Still, he had his doubters for March, most of whom claimed he wouldn’t get up the hill. Barry Geraghty rather coyly suggested that his only worry about the hill was if he would have enough room at the top of it to stop his mount! As expected by many, he duly hacked up and was arguably the most impressive winner of the week (and the first of many for the Henderson team!). Sprinter Sacre (pictured below) is a hugely talented horse and it would appear the sky is the limit, so you flat fans can cling onto your Frankel memories, we have our own machine!!

 

It doesn’t take a genius to realise that Paul Nicholls is a superb trainer of racehorses, but 2012 has shown yet again how unbelievable he really is. At the beginning of the year, the Master of Ditcheat had never won the Champion Hurdle, Grand National or PaddyPower Gold Cup – he’s now won all 3! Noel Fehily and Rock On Ruby stormed up the hill to become Champions before that old boy Neptune Collonges got up by a whisker to land the ultimate prize in racing under Daryl Jacob in April; with Ruby Walsh partnering Al Ferof to another big Cheltenham pot in the November showpiece. What a year the Champion Trainer has enjoyed, and wins like this help quantify how successful he really is. However, one of the highlights of my year was the rejuvenation of Tidal Bay (in a similar way to Kauto Star last year!), turning him into one of the biggest names in jump racing (well, nearly). For a horse who won an Arkle in his younger days it is fair to say he somewhat disappointed thereafter, but his move to Ditcheat has seen him win the Bet365 Gold Cup (a Gr3 chase), win the John Smith’s Hurdle (a Gr2), finish runner up to Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth (giving him 6lb) in Newbury’s Hennessy Gold Cup (a Gr3 chase), and then win arguably the race of the season in the Lexus (a Gr1 chase) at Leopardstown last week!!  All this from a horse who had won just once in his last 15 races before joining the Nicholls camp following the ban given to former trainer Howard Johnson. It makes you wonder what heights Tidal Bay (pictured below) may have scaled had he been in the right hands from the start.... To turn a horse around in such tremendous fashion is almost unheard of and we are truly lucky to be blessed to enjoy such expertise in our sport and the training performance has been one of my highlights of the year!

 

Though not one of my favourite horses, the meteoric rise of Hunt Ball is one of my favourite racing highlights for the year as he really is the racing equivalent of the “rags to riches” philosophy! Rated a mere 69 at the beginning of last season and still only 102 at the turn of the year, seeing this horse win at the Cheltenham Festival (with plenty in hand too!) was a real fairytale and provided his charismatic owner (pictured below celebrating the victory) with the result he had told everyone would happen. Hunt Ball improved a total of 88lbs from the start of the season to the end and gives hope to anyone who owns any horse – you never know how good they may turn out! At the Festival he won the final race of the day on a card that hosted the Supreme, the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle; yet he still received the greatest cheer on his return to the parade ring and winners enclosure which really does epitomise how closely the Hunt Ball story touched the hearts of racing fans.

Last of my 5 racing highlights in 2012 was seeing Silviniaco Conti (pictured below) justify the faith and optimism I have had in him since seeing him win at Chepstow on just his 2^nd British start. Those of you who know me personally will have heard me go on and on about this horse and how good I think he will be, so it was great to see him show everyone else the talent he has to offer. He was clearly not the finished article when disappointing around the middle of last season but returned to win impressively at Aintree after skipping Cheltenham in March. After a nice long summer break he returned to take the Gr2 Charlie Hall Chase in his first run outside of novice company, showing in the process that he had improved and was now looking more the finished article. His next run, however, was the real acid test as he was upped in class to take on former King George (now twice) and Gold Cup winner Long Run in the Gr1 Betfair Chase at Haydock, seeing off that rival and all others to confirm he is a serious Gold Cup contender. He’s not the biggest horse but in my (biased) opinion he is certainly one to be reckoned with and is one of the best jumpers around. Hopefully he will go on to enjoy more Gr1 success and make my 2013 racing highlights this time next year!

 

Well that’s 5, but as said above I could sit here all week listing my racing highlights over the past year. I’ve no doubt 2013 will be even better and I hope you enjoy following this blog ( give us a tweet with your 2013 racing highlights @kingofthejumps ), particularly as we draw closer to March! Happy New Year to you all and I hope you enjoy the racing ahead as much as I know I will!!

 

Short and Sweet - 2 of Note

Some excellent racing tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how the results shake up the Festival markets after races like the Challow. Plenty of horses to note but 2 in particular are down on my lists of horses to follow:

 

Blackwell Synergy could be interesting in the first at Newbury tomorrow. His Irish hurdles form isn't too bad (beat a couple on debut that are now rated 120+) and he won a handicap hurdle under Davy Russell off a mark off 114 which is the same as his current chase mark having dropped 2lb for his handicap chase debut. There could be more to come as he jumped slowly on debut for Jonjo before jumping a little better last time over a trip too short but 2m6f in testing ground should suit better. Would be one to follow when upped again to 3m I think but worth keeping an eye on the market in case the money comes.

"Dick Dundee is a good horse who hasn't made his racecourse debut yet but won a point to point for us last year and Jamie Codd thought the world of him. Unfortunately getting ready for last season he picked up an injury that has kept him out until now. It will probably be the New Year and we'll discuss it with Barry Connell whether he will go for his bumper or because of his age go straight over hurdles. He's a horse with a big engine and a horse we think an awful lot of so we are looking forward to getting him out."

That's from Paul Nolan's ATR Stable Tour. The 2nd in that Point was leading by 2 lengths when falling (and dying I think) in his only subsequent run and that horse and Dick Dundee were 20 lengths clear of the 3rd. He hasn't run for 664 days but is obviously well regarded and with Ruby booked you'd think he'll go alright in the 12.55pm at Leopardstown tomorrow.

Leech Racing and Cheltenham Racing Club

 

A couple of weeks ago I enjoyed another stable visit, this time at Tudor Racing Stables in Gloucestershire, home to Sophie Leech (pictured above) and her husband Christian (who is also assistant trainer). I’d been to the Leech’s once before, when considering joining Cheltenham Racing Club, a fun, fairly small syndicate who lease a few horses with Team Leech. I thoroughly enjoyed the morning and shortly after paid the very reasonable membership fee for CRC and have since had a fantastic time following the horses we lease.

 

CRC is made up of around 26 members (some of which are pictured above at a previous visit) and always has 3 horses in training at any time of the year (which runs from April-April), meaning we regularly have runners which allows members to enjoy a slightly more involved experience of racing. Since April, we have leased 6 different horses, who have run in a total of 24 races (20 National Hunt / 4 All Weather) at 14 different racecourses. In the 20 races under National Hunt rules, CRC horses have operated at a win strike rate of 20% and a place strike rate of 50% (returning a £1 level stakes profit of £4.88). When also taking into account the 4 all-weather races the club has achieved 4 wins, 4 2nds, and 3 3rds; accruing total prize money of just over £12,000 in the process! One of the perks of membership is a share of prize money accrued by CRC horses at the end of the year which further adds to the excitement of having a horse win or place! Due to the small nature of the club (some racing clubs contain 200+ members) it is very rare not be allocated an Owners badge upon request when the Club has a runner, and combined with access to the parade ring for a pre-race brief between jockey and trainer (and a visit to the winners enclosure post-race on those lucky occasions!) and use of the O&T bar during the day; the value for money of membership is, in my opinion, unbeatable for passionate racing fans as it provides members with the opportunity to experience, albeit on a much smaller scale, the benefits of racehorse ownership. CRC are also fortunate enough to be invited to regular stable visits by the always welcoming Team Leech; so for someone who loves racing this affordable experience truly is worthwhile!

 

Back to the stable tour and after greeting us with mulled wine and mince pies on arrival, Sophie and her team paraded the 3 horses we are to lease for the next few months – Old Magic (recent Chepstow winner for the Club who is pictured above), Referent (formerly owned by Sizing Europe’s connections) and Gtaab (lightly raced horse coming back from a long injury layoff). Sophie provided a commentary of each horse and their likely plans for the near future, before taking us up to the gallop to watch all 3 being worked.

 

 

 

This was followed by Referent and Gtaab popping over a few hurdles in the schooling field before we returned to the yard to be shown a few more equine members of Team Leech who were entered to run in the week ahead. These included the eye-catching Grey Soldier (pictured above); new recruit Take Of Shocs; and a nice prospect for the future in Winston Churchill (a lovely looking son of Presenting who is pictured below). Then free to have a look around the yard and ask any questions, the morning was wrapped up and  most departed for lunch at the Apple Tree Inn at Minsterworth (though some of us rushed home to catch the football!). As always it was a thoroughly enjoyable morning and Sophie, Christian and their excellent team were all very approachable and more than happy to chat about their horses and all things racing. The team are fantastic and provide their inmates (and owners!) with the utmost care and consideration, whilst their smaller sized operation (in comparison to some of racing’s powerhouse training yards) arguably enables them to offer a more personable experience for their owners. Another bonus of owning horses with Leech Racing is that they are able to attract a great number of jockeys; a list which this season alone has included Paul Moloney (who regularly rides out and schools for the yard), Jason Maguire, Paddy Brennan, Noel Fehily, Richie McLernon, James Best, Donal Fahy, Donal Devereux and Stephen Clements.

 

If you are considering racehorse ownership, whether it be alone, with a friend, or through joining a racing club like CRC, don’t hesitate in contacting either Sophie or Christian (whose contact details can be found on http://www.leechracing.co.uk/ ) to discuss the different options available.

 

Racecourses at which Cheltenham Racing Club horses will have run between 1^st April 2012 and 1^st January 2013:

Bangor                         Cartmel                   Chepstow                      Fontwell

Hereford                       Ludlow                    Newton Abbot               Perth

Plumpton                      Southwell                Towcester                     Windsor

Wolverhampton            Worcester  

 

 

Boxing Day Bonanza!

 

          Merry Christmas! Hope you have all had a great day! Although I’m almost too stuffed to move my hands and type, I’ll soldier on as we have a great racing day to look forward to tomorrow!

Kempton is obviously the best place to start and the King George looks a seriously competitive renewal! The only factor that disappoints me is that the going will be heavy, meaning it may not shed too much light on how the Gold Cup may pan out in March! Having had a couple of quid each way on Cue Card at 25s before his reappearance, I’m happy enough with that given his current price though I wouldn’t be 100% confident that he’ll stay this trip in heavy ground - we shall see! Long Run has to have a favourite’s chance. I like the horse and just feel he is more of a plodder these days as he doesn’t have the turn of foot the speedier sorts have (hence not quickening past Kauto last season!). Hopefully he’ll make the running tomorrow and if so I could imagine him galloping them into the ground and making it a gruelling test of stamina. The chief dangers in my eyes would be Kauto Stone (proven in heavy and won a Gr1), Riverside Theatre (pictured below, goes extremely well fresh and proven over C&D) and Grands Crus (top class in Feltham last season and if wind op helps him see out his races better, he could play a massive part). I won’t be getting involved but it certainly looks an excellent race to watch and I can’t wait to see what happens!

 

The first race on the card also looks very competitive, but I feel the likes of Spirit Of Shankly and New Years Eve will have their work cut out to get close to River Maigue. The latter of the pair in particular is unlikely to be suited by the ground conditions, but even on better ground I’d fancy Barry Geraghty’s mount as I believe the race he ran in last time could turn out to be one of the best of its kind this season. The winner, Dodging Bullets, looks decent value in the Christmas Hurdle later on the card in my opinion, and the third, Court Minstrel, is a horse I think will also play a big part in the Supreme at Cheltenham in March.

Although the aforementioned Dodging Bullets could be decent value in the Christmas Hurdle, it’s another race I wouldn’t be getting too involved in. Darlan (pictured below) is the horse I think could be the best in the race but I’d have worries about the ground for him. Another who seems to have people worried about the ground is Cinders And Ashes, but although flopping last time behind seriously impressive Countrywide Flame in tough conditions, he is proven on such ground and I’d be inclined to ignore that run as he was beaten first time out last season before racking up a few nice wins, culminating in the Supreme at Cheltenham. He’s around 4/1 tomorrow and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve massively on his previous run.

 

The 2^nd race looks set to be fought out by just 2 of them in my opinion and those 2 are Rajdhani Express and Coole River. The former looked set to win before departing last time and I’d expect him to go very close tomorrow, but Emma Lavelle’s representative made a more than satisfactory reappearance after a long layoff. He had some very smart looking hurdles form before his injury and if he has retained that ability he could take all the beating with some improvement likely, you’d just have to hope he doesn’t “bounce”.

The third race is an interesting one as there is a short favourite (quite rightly so some may say after the way Dynaste won impressively at both Cheltenham and Newbury), but I think I may take a chance on Paul Nicholls’ Poungach improving considerably for the step up in trip and serving up a shock. He was high class over hurdles and although not looking the finished article yet over fences, I feel there is more to come and at 11/2 he looks worth an each way bet as you’ll get your stake back if he places. Hadrians Approach is another who I think will continue to improve with every run and for that reason I won’t be including Dynaste in any multiples tomorrow.

 

The final race on the card is somewhat frustrating as both Saint Roque and Katkeau figure highly in my “horses to follow” notes! As mentioned when he was withdrawn a week or so back, I quite fancied Saint Roque having backed him on reappearance when he was brought down a few from home at Cheltenham when arguably looking like the winner. He should defy a mark of 118 as I feel he could make into a 145+ chaser in time, so would have to go close tomorrow. Katkeau was in the process of running a big race last time and was still cruising on the bridle when making a clattering error and smashing one of his hurdles, after which he was hardly touched and seemingly looked after. He’s proven in the conditions and is likely to run a big race with Tom Scudamore now taking the ride, so given the both relatively short prices it may be worth chancing a reverse forecast on the pair.

 

Kempton is by no means the only card tomorrow and a couple of horses catch my eye across both sides of the Irish Sea! David Pipe (pictured above with his King George hope Grands Crus) looks to have a big chance of taking the Ffos Las bumper with Top Gamble after he was beaten in similar conditions last time by a horse that cost a few quid. The other horse  of note at the Welsh track would be former Hennessy winner Carruthers who has dropped to what could still be a very winnable mark. He also drops seriously in class of race so could take the beating in what doesn’t look the best of contests.

Over at Wincanton the 2.15pm is another very annoying race in that a good few are down on my lists! Connectivity looked a decent horse for Dr Richard Newland but has had a layoff since and The Pier certainly has a race in him for David Pipe but when that is I’m not sure. Rangitoto is one I’ve mentioned before and it appears worthy of note that he continues to take in Handicap Hurdles and not go back over fences (where he is bred to excel) as it suggests his connections feel he can win one of these before doing so. However, Holywell and Ardlui are the pair on which I’d rather concentrate. Holywell looked competitive last time out and should be winning a race soon if you ask me, but Ardlui certainly looks well handicapped on his Newbury 3^rd (see previous blog article “Could Be More To Come” to see why!) and the step up in trip looks sure to bring about further improvement so for those reasons I shall be having a punt on him tomorrow.

 

Though unlikely to back them other than possibly in the odd multiple, Umpact (Limerick), Fickle Fortune (Down Royal) and Ned Buntline (Leopardstown) all look to hold big chances in their respective races in Ireland. Another horse I’d like to flag up in the Emerald Isle is Gordon Elliott’s juvenile Fisher, who goes in the 1.20pm at Leopardstown. His form to date looks decent and his trainer is reportedly quite impressed by him, but even more interesting is that he has had a wind op since his last run so there could be more to come on the back of that. However, he is expected to improve a fair amount for better ground so I’d be willing to leave him alone tomorrow as it’s a half decent race (he could make the places) but then have an each way ante post punt on him for the Cheltenham Festival. I’d say the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is the most likely race and if you could get a price on him with BetVictor it would be worth utilising their excellent Non Runner Free Bet offer in case he doesn’t go for the race. The final horse of note in Ireland is Old Kilcash who takes up an engagement in the 3.30pm at Leopardstown. He cost £300,000 so is worth keeping an eye on but, as with all these big money purchases, is likely to be a longer term project so may not be a good thing in a race like this. In any case, it could be worth making a note of him with a view to the future!

 

Best of luck with whatever you back and most of all, enjoy a top class day for racing!!

Never Too Early For A Grand National Bet!

 

The Grand National is one of the highlights of my year and is arguably one of my favourite races all season. My approach to betting in the race is simple – I back half the field! I don’t care about winning or losing money as I would never have a serious sized bet in a race of its nature, but there is nothing worse than waiting all year for the race, betting on 2 or 3, and having none left to follow by the 4^th or 5^th fence! I like to go into the race with a huge team, in an attempt to ensure I still have some chance a couple from home! I don’t have level stakes, I’ll have bigger bets on horses I actually fancy, and sometimes even £1 each way on huge priced outsiders whether it be because I like the jockey, the name or the silks (very professional selection eh!). Usually I will chip away at different points in the season and get a fancy price about something I feel will contract on the back of a particular race, meaning I only need tiny stakes. An example of this is the £2 I had at 80.0 on Join Together to win (and a little bit on the place at 27.0) before he ran in the Becher Chase a couple of weeks ago. My theory was that given I fancied him to run a massive race in that (he did, narrowly beaten by Hello Bud), his price would automatically be cut for the big race in April as connections would obviously consider that route for his season. He is now around 21.0 and 5.1 respectively.

 

Today I have added another horse to my portfolio and that comes in the shape of the soon-to-be 10 year old, Chicago Grey (pictured above). Having won the 4m NH Chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, he would appear to have been a disappointment if reading his results literally. However, this could have played to his advantage as, having been campaigned in conditions by which I feel he is not best suited (shorter trips and soft ground); his chase mark of 150 has now dropped to 143. What this means in terms of the National is that he is very likely to be allotted a racing weight not much higher (if at all) than the bottom 10st; a factor that may prove highly beneficial to his cause. He is definitely targeting the race according to a stable tour given by trainer Gordon Elliott (pictured below); his stamina is proven; and although he was brought down fairly early in last season’s renewal (a risk that is ever present in the race for horses who are dropped out the back), he didn’t appear to be too troubled by the 4 obstacles he did negotiate.

 

 

For the above reasons, I’ve decided to invest each way at his current price of 50/1 (widely available) and will be hoping he can add another big pot to the one his trainer took at Ascot on Saturday with Cause Of Causes.

Some Like It Heavy!

 

 

As expected tomorrow’s racing (assuming it’s on) will be on heavy ground. Though often not ideal, this does suit all the horses fancied this weekend so isn’t too bad. As put up on this blog a couple of days ago, Merry King (pictured above battling at Newbury) would appear to have more to come and having just opened up 7/2 for the Tommy Whittle Chase, looks worth a few quid. For more details on why he looks nicely handicapped, see the above link. Haydock is also the host of a few other fancies for tomorrow and one of those is Donald McCain’s Hollow Tree (pictured below) who certainly thrives when the mud is flying. Last winter he beat future Cheltenham and Aintree (and Fighting Fifth) winner Countrywide Flame, and although having to give weight to the field tomorrow you would expect him to run a nice race. His form is extremely smart and depending on price I’d be getting involved if he’s not too short.

Another Haydock-bound fancy is also trained by McCain and that is Desert Cry. Last time he ran at the course he finished 2 lengths 2^nd to Celestial Halo (though in receipt of 8lb) in a heavy ground Gr2, so it is surprising he is only running off a mark of 127. He previously finished around 4 lengths behind the very smart Bold Sir Brian (giving that rival 4lb) in a Gr2, which further cements the fact that he could be seriously underestimated off his current mark.

Tracking back to the first race on the card and Kim Bailey’s Able Deputy could still have more to come off his revised mark of 122. He is 5lb higher than his narrow 2^nd last time but the winner (Tanerko Emery) won again next time out and the 3^rd horse (Barenger) is one I feel to be very favourably handicapped. That run was in heavy ground so tomorrow’s conditions should suit fine and he could take all the beating.

Another who I think will be okay tomorrow’s conditions is Hold On Julio (pictured above) who runs at Ascot after failing to justify his connections bullish attitude in the Hennessy. It could be that the ground dried out too much for him last time and he certainly looked outpaced before staying on to take 5^th in the closing stages. He has actually been dropped 2lb for that effort and I think it’s a matter of time before he wins one of these Handicap Chases off his current mark.

Ulck Du Lin also ran on Hennessy Gold Cup Day, and having been put up on this blog at 5/1 the night before, duly obliged to take the final race of Newbury’s Winter Festival at an SP of 2/1. He has gone up 10lb for that victory but looks progressive so could have more to offer as he’s an improving 4yo and won on soft in France so will hopefully be okay in that respect.

2 other slightly weaker fancies also ran at Newbury and although flopping in a Handicap Hurdle, I’m keen to see Cedre Bleu (pictured above) back over fences as I feel he will improve in that sphere. He should be sharper for Newbury but is unlikely to be much of a price so will be one to just watch. Dancingtilmidnight won at Newbury and although I won’t be backing tomorrow, he is well regarded by connections so would be another I’ll keep a close eye on.

As always, good luck! And don’t forget we posted a couple of 20/1 shots that may be overpriced for the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot so have a browse and most of all - enjoy!

P.S. Follow us on Twitter ( @kingofthejumps ) and give us a RT!

Pricewise for the Ladbroke!

What a fantastic race we have to look forward to on Saturday in the Ladbroke! Whilst many cards are being cancelled across the country due to appalling weather conditions, the heavy ground doesn’t look like being too much of an inconvenience to many of this 21 strong field and it looks a very hot renewal.

 

With so many unexposed horses it looks a minefield to try and pick the winner from, and you couldn’t be put off fancying any of about 15 of them! One I do feel could be overpriced is David Pipe’s 4yo Kazlian who surprised connections when beaten on his stable debut, but made amends next time out when winning by 50 lengths in heavy ground (a valuable asset given Saturday’s conditions). He followed up with another victory 3 weeks later in soft ground and was massively fancied by the Pond House team in the build up to the Cheltenham Festival in March. Pipe stated in his stable tour that the way the race panned out didn’t suit his charge as “he was wide at the start and raced too keen”, which makes sense as he tracked the leader early on; took it up after the 3^rd; and was still 8 lengths clear approaching 3 from home. Ridden as they approached the last, he was overtaken as the eventual first 3 home kicked on and Kazlian may have been slightly done for toe on the better ground (given his affinity for soft and heavy ground). Though I’m not sure how highly I rate the form of this race in general, the winner has looked smart in winning twice since, and in much softer conditions Kazlian could well have plenty more to come as an unexposed 4yo. He was ridden differently at Aintree on his final start last season so I’d be inclined to draw a line through that run, as I would regarding his reappearance in the RP Hurdle this season as he has come on a lot for his first run a couple of times so hopefully that has dusted off the cobwebs and he can resume progress here. As said, it is not a race I feel is worth getting too caught up in as it’s hugely competitive, but at 20/1 and allotted a racing weight of 10st 6lb (which is likely to be of great benefit in the stamina sapping conditions) he looks a nice each way proposition for a vested interest in the race.

 

There are plenty with big chances on paper, but a couple of others who could run well at more favourable prices are Rigidity and Thomas Edison, both of whom are also 20/1 for the contest. Rigidity has looked out of sorts recently but is down to the same mark of 133 off which he finished half a length 2^nd to Raya Star in the same race this time last season and is also proven in soft/heavy ground so could be another each way alternative off an also favourable racing weight of 10st 4lb. Thomas Edison is owned by JP McManus who loves to have runners in the big races, and this one could turn out to be on a workable mark off 132 as his bumper victory over Champagne Fever looks very smart. He has coped with fairly testing conditions in the past, and although not making much of a mark in his 3 handicap runs to date (his saddle slipped in the first), it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see him find some improvement for a race of this nature. He wasn’t put in the race at all on the middle handicap run, before staying on well, and was held up again in the most recent run and travelled well but was unable to reel in the winner who was in receipt of 20lb. 7 out of the past 9 winners of this race have been held up so his style of racing could be of benefit and at 20/1 he is 1 of 3 that I can see running better than that price would suggest (may even perm the forecast/tricast to a very small stake).

Could Be More To Come?

 

There is nothing more frustrating than identifying one you feel is very nicely handicapped, and then seeing him beaten by one who it turns out was also on a very nice mark. However, this doesn’t always mean the chance has gone and an example of this was At Fishers Cross at Cheltenham last week. Having put up Salubrious (pictured above chasing the winner) on this blog the night before, also highlighting Ardlui as having more to come, I didn’t much enjoy seeing At Fishers Cross demolish the pair on Hennessy Gold Cup Day. The resultant feeling of this race is not that I got Paul Nicholls' horse wrong, but more that At Fishers Cross was extremely well handicapped as he followed up at Cheltenham to frank the form of the other pair. Rebecca Curtis’ son of Oscar has now proven he stays 3m (a stiff one at that when adding in the Cheltenham hill) but he certainly doesn’t look short of pace so would appear versatile in both ground and trip which bodes well for his future. Taking into account the above, one would have to conclude that Salubrious still looks to be worth following next time he runs having been raised just 4lb on the back of his Newbury 2^nd. Ardlui could also prove worth following as he is only 3lb higher, was 8 lengths clear of 4^th, and should up his game now taking in races over trips greater than 2m. He is entered over 2m6f at Ascot on Friday and although I noticed a few others in that race that I am following (which I will highlight in my preview of the meeting when declarations are out tomorrow morning), he is worth keeping in mind, particularly if he’s an each way price when the markets open.

 

Another race on Hennessy Gold Cup Day also looks fairly substantial from a form perspective and that is the Novices Handicap Chase won by Rolling Aces (pictured above fighting it out with the runner up Merry King). Put up on here the night before, Rolling Aces looked very favourably handicapped with the likelihood of further improvement when tried over a trip and handicapping and he justified this optimism when beating Merry King by half a length. That rival was also mentioned in our preview article as he was another who looked to be potentially underestimated by the handicapper with his breeding suggesting a trip and fences would bring about further improvement. Though unlucky to finish 2^nd, I think he’ll have more to come and could be up to defying his revised mark of 6lb, particularly given the 3^rd, Handy Andy, won today at Newbury off the same mark he ran off behind Rolling Aces and Merry King. The latter of that pair is entered for the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock on Sunday, and although heavy ground, he is by Old Vic so shouldn’t be too inconvenienced and could well makes amends for his narrow defeat last time. Rolling Aces is likely to have an engagement at Wincanton on Boxing Day and I’d like to think he’d be up to defying his 8lb higher mark as I’m certain the Newbury race will work out (in addition to Handy Andy, the 10^th and 12^th have both come out and won a race since).

 

 

Handy Andy (pictured above with Joe Tizzard aboard) was bought in January 2011 for £115,000 and his trainer Colin Tizzard supposedly thought a fair bit of him. Having beaten Our Father on his first run, he pulled up lame at Aintree and frightened himself a bit when returning in a Gr2 Novice Chase at Wincanton so he was sent back hurdling to grow up both physically and mentally, and having run 3 weeks in a row in early 2012 he gained victory again in a Newbury Handicap Hurdle off a lowly 115. He was then put away and returned in October, taking in another Handicap Hurdle and then a Beginners Chase, before performing more respectably in the Newbury race off his revised chase mark of 115. Taking into account his price tag and that he has taken time to mature, it could be that the penny has now dropped and having won today he may well go on and rack up another couple of races. He is by Beneficial so today’s 3m and soft ground would’ve been right up his street and granted those conditions again he could well have more to come. Following the same theme, it is feasible that Chartreux (pictured below in action), the horse beaten 2 lengths by Handy Andy today (18 lengths clear of 3^rd), may also have more to come as he has seemingly been beaten by one with a fair bit in hand. He may go up a couple of lbs for today but is only rated 125 over fences compared with a rating of 133 over hurdles so Tom George may have something to work with. It would appear the softer the better for this one and at worst he looks to need some cut in the ground but in his preferred conditions he could be up to going one better.

 

To summarise, the horses highlighted that could still be well handicapped:

 

At Fishers Cross (versatile regarding trip and ground, very impressive)

Salubrious (could be nicely handicapped, wants 2m4f-3m and cut in ground)

Ardlui (should improve for trips of 2m4f+ so could be on a nice mark)

Rolling Aces (3m will suit well, more to come, likes cut in the ground)

Merry King (wants soft ground or worse, should stay 3m+, more to come)

Handy Andy (could still be improving, 3m and cut in ground should suit)

Chartreux (lower over fences than hurdles, maybe more to come, needs soft)

3 Unexposed Horses to Follow

Over the next few weeks and months I hope to post a number of these pieces on either horses who are unexposed, in the hope that when they reappear they can make their mark, or those that look very favourably handicapped and may open up a value price. Here are the first 3, all of whom I believe to be unexposed and have plenty more to come:

 

Im Fraam Govan

As you may have guessed from his name, this horse is by Fraam; not a sire one would automatically assume to be producing National Hunt horses. Another intriguing fact is that he is (or at least was when he made his debut) trained by George Baker, who is a renowned flat trainer and can’t have many NH horses in his yard. But believe me when I tell you this horse is exciting! I’m a regular visitor to Worcester Racecourse but it is not often I return home having seen a horse I’d recommend following through the winter and that could make a Cheltenham Festival horse, but this one certainly took my breath away back in May. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson (pictured below) who has a few horses with Paul Nicholls, he was subject to a big gamble (SP of 7/2 having opened up 16/1 in places) and justified the faith shown in him by taking the race under Conor O’Farrell in the cheekiest fashion. His main rival being Paul Nicholls’ Easter Day, Daryl Jacob was hard at work from a fair way out aboard the Ditcheat inmate and just yards from the line, with the pair neck and neck, O’Farrell didn’t move a muscle as his mount won by half a length. Im Fraam Govan was giving Easter Day 3lb in weight, but it was the nature of the ride that suggests this is a serious animal as his jockey looked supremely confident in not needing to touch him, even though not taking the lead until inside the final furlong and still not shaking him up once taking a threadbare lead. The runner up had previously finished 3^rd at Chepstow behind Melodic Rendezvous who finished 2^nd in the Gr1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown next time out behind Cheltenham Festival Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever. Melodic Rendezvous then reappeared on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham on Friday to take a very competitive Novice Hurdle, confirming the promise he had shown in both previous starts. The form of that Chepstow race looks solid and Easter Day further franked the Worcester race by winning his hurdles debut on the bridle by 12 lengths (the horse he beat is now rated 117 over hurdles and 119 over fences as he won a chase next time out) and even further confirmed his ability in impressively winning a Class 2 Novice Hurdle at Ascot (beating a double winner who is rated 139). Given how well the form of the Worcester race is working out (although there was nothing of substance in behind, that’s to be expected in a race at the course and the pair were 12 lengths clear of the 3^rd and both only 4yos), it is fair to assume that Im Fraam Govan will be a horse very much worth following closely when he next runs, whether he is saved for one of the big spring bumpers or embarks on a hurdling career. In any case, he is a fantastic prospect for his connections and they will no doubt be winning some nice races with him.

 

Turanjo Bello

Another horse whose form ties closely with that of recent Cheltenham winner Melodic Rendezvous is Philip Hobbs’ Turanjo Bello. Having finished 2^nd in a Point he finished 2^nd behind the aforementioned in the Chepstow race in which Easter Day finished 3^rd. The way in which Easter Day has advertised the form is outlined above, whilst the 4^th and 5^th have both won a race since which solidifies the strength in depth of the race. Turanjo Bello then bumped into another very smart horse when finishing 2^nd by ¾ of a length behind Kim Bailey’s exciting youngster Twelve Roses, again back at Chepstow. That rival was in receipt of 13lb that day and although disappointing next time and now injured for the season, he is very highly regarded by his handler. No No Charlie was just a head behind Turanjo Bello and he came out and effortlessly won by 7 lengths next time, before finishing 2^nd to Taquin Du Seuil. Although beaten a fair way by the Jonjo O’Neil horse, he is a star in the making (he narrowly lost out to My Tent Or Yours when giving weight away next time before easily taking a Gr2 event on his only start since) so it is still a creditable run and the 3^rd was another 12 lengths back and won by 27 lengths in a poor Maiden Hurdle next time out. The 4^th behind No No Charlie in Turanjo Bello’s race was Big Society who was beaten less than a length in both of his 2 starts since, giving an even more solid look to the form. Turanjo Bello hasn’t been seen since that race in April, but will surely be worth following in staying Novice Hurdles when he does reappear (he is by Turgeon) and looks another nice horse to have for his trainer Philip Hobbs  (pictured below) and owner Diana Whateley.

Nuts N Bolts

The final of these three horses to follow is a very promising novice chaser named Nuts N Bolts who is in the care of Northern trainer Lucinda Russell. He won a bumper first time out, then followed that up with a creditable 3^rd under a penalty before flopping (understandably given his preferred conditions) when upped in grade for the Gr2 bumper at Aintree. He was then put away and returned 8 months later, taking a Novice Hurdle at Newcastle by 5 lengths before giving Super Duty (who won impressively at Cheltenham on Saturday) a hard race and looking like he might win before that rival fell at the last in another Novice Hurdle at Ayr. He was again put away, presumably to grow up and mature, before returning in an Intermediate Hurdle at the start of October. However, it is over fences that this son of Marju will be seen to best effect, and he subsequently made his chase debut at Carlisle, though interestingly over 2m. Having raced prominently he was beaten a fair way in the end, but this run can be completely ignored as he wants a trip and will almost certainly improve a ton for that run when taking in a race over a longer distance. On that note, he is entered off an opening mark of 128 in a 2m4f Handicap Chase at Newcastle on Saturday and I’d expect him to take all the beating. He loves soft ground and although it’s heavy there at the moment I’d say he’ll be fine in it and will be getting on each way (he should be a fair price) as soon as the markets open on Friday. He’s is only a 6yo and his trainer has publicly stated he is a nice staying type and that “we're quite excited about him because his form of last season is pretty solid and he looks like he's going to improve again over fences but further than two miles next time."

 

 

Hopefully these 3 will prove fruitful to follow, and there will be plenty more posts similar to this one over the next couple of weeks and months, with a particular focus in the New Year on well handicapped horses who are likely to be targeting races at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Happy Days!

Cocktails at Dawn!

Not often one to take too much of an interest midweek (it can be a lottery, particularly in ground conditions like we are currently ‘enjoying’) but Special Catch was a nice winner for any of you who follow @kingofthejumps on Twitter. His form stacked up and he did as expected to take a fairly weak contest at Catterick. If any of you are on Twitter and not currently following, it may be worth giving us a follow and a retweet as sometimes the odd fancy will be put on there and not in the blog if there’s only 1 or 2 of interest on the day. Also feel free to email kingofthejumps@gmail.com if you have any comments, feedback, questions or suggestions for this blog.

Off to Ludlow (pictured below) again tomorrow and felt I should at least browse the declarations for tomorrow’s meetings and try and pick out the odd one to watch out for. The 2.10pm sees Dark Energy run for Fergal O’Brien and again Miss Ally Stirling rides. Fergal recently did a stable tour on the At The Races site and said of this horse: “I'm looking at a ladies race at Ludlow in mid-December which will be ideal for him”. It’s a low grade race so he won’t get bullied; jockey knows him well and he proved he goes on soft ground. It is a 14 runner, Amateur Lady Riders Handicap Hurdle so he may be an each way price and if he is I’ll probably have a tiny interest.

 

The following 2.45pm race is another I may have a small interest in if Allthekingshorses is even a half decent price as an opening handicap chase mark of 127 could turn out to be workable for a horse who beat Rocky Creek off level weights over hurdles. I wouldn’t think he’ll scale the same heights as that rival but is by Kings Theatre so should make a decent chaser (his trainer seems to be a big fan of the sire) and although maybe suited by slightly better ground, I thought that of the same trainer’s (and same sire’s) Carrigmorna King but he justified my support at this track on chase debut so hopefully Allthekingshorses can do the same tomorrow.

The other race of interest is the very next race at 3.15pm which sees Nicky Henderson (pictured below) run the talented Polly Peachum who has to give 7lb to the field. However, she may just be up to it as the form of her 3 runs to date looks smart as she wasn’t beaten far on debut in a jumpers bumper by the impressive Devon Drum, and has subsequently racked up 2 wins in a bumper and a novice hurdle, beating Mischievous Milly in the bumper (beaten a short head next time before taking hurdles debut by 21 lengths giving weight away) and Pure Style in the novice hurdle (who won a jumpers bumper on the bridle by 8 lengths next time out). The other horse I like the look of in the race is The Wicked Kipper who is a close relation to Cue Card; was beaten only 3 lengths by the very able Midnight Minx on debut; and is by Kings Theatre so should improve for hurdles and tomorrow’s step up in trip. The Henderson horse is likely to be plenty short enough so if the Wicked Keeper is an each way price it may pay to side with her given the potential for improvement and the weight she receives.

Over at Newbury, Nicky Henderson could take the 12.15pm Juvenile Hurdle with the now gelded Amoralist as his schooling has reportedly gone very much to plan, but the 1.20pm is certainly the race of the day for me. Alan King runs 2 here and both Arabian Heights (owned by the McNeil family) and Fair Trade could stake their claims, the latter having been rated 114 (he ran in the Guineas) and having schooled well. He is very well regarded by the Barbury Castle team and should make his mark over hurdles but tomorrow is no easy task as Poet (also smart on the flat), The Nephew (who cost £55,000 at the sales in the spring and could have more to offer under Barry Geraghty on better ground than he’s encountered in 2 runs to date) Snake Eyes (a very well regarded son of Oscar who shocked many when beaten on debut but surely has plenty more to come) and a couple of other interesting sorts all line up in this uncharacteristically strong, 19 runner maiden hurdle! I’ll certainly be going “no bet” but it’s a nice surprise for a Wednesday afternoon card. Henderson could take the 3pm contest with Cocktails At Dawn, who he not only loves because of the name but also thinks could be a very exciting horse. He fell when booked for 2^nd in a Point (the winner sold for £300,000) and is by the same sire as Simonsig, so you would think he’ll show up well in this Novice Hurdle.

 

It’s always nice to be on course so I’m looking forward to Ludlow tomorrow but just praying the predicted rain doesn’t arrive! As always, it could end up being a day just for watching but at least there is a bit of quality on show so hopefully it will be a decent day out - though I doubt we'll be inclined to try out any cocktails on a cold, wintery December day!

Happy Days!