International Hurdle Day at Cheltenham

Another mixed day yesterday with Bradley flopping and Uncle Junior crashing out, but the day paid for by Dark Lover (who was available at around 6/1) and At Fishers Cross (around 3/1 and the advised forecast also came in!). Though not making frame I thought it worth mentioning that Imperial Leader ran a cracker yesterday, understandably outpaced over a trip too short but staying on gamely and not beaten at all far. Given he is only a 4yo and had to give 6lb to most of this talented field, I'm certain he'll be winning sooner rather than later so is one to stick in your tracker!

 

Not the best of cards at Cheltenham again today and due to the extreme weather (I imagine the ground will ride very heavy today) I won't be having a bet, though I'm already on Notus De La Tour who was put up a few weeks ago on http://kingofthejumps.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/could-notus-be-ante-post-value-in.html. The race looks a decent one and the other 2 I'd fancy would be Paul Nicholls' pair of Unioniste and Cristal Bonus. The former jumped like a veteran on chase debut in a hot race behind Dynaste and Fingal Bay and should come on for it as he had a wind op in the summer. The latter I feel has plenty more to come and could be the class horse of the race.

 

The big race aside I wouldn't be looking to have a bet but as always will have a close eye on proceedings. Handazan could have more to come since being gelded and will love conditions but he'd have to improve a serious amount to reverse the form with Far West who could be one of the best juveniles around this season. Coneygree won well here last time and as ever course form is a crucial factor at Cheltenham so he could be up to repeating that effort. Our Father will take all the beating in the Novice Chase but Highland Lodge could run a nice race under Barry Geraghty as I feel he's up to winning one of these 3m contests in testing conditions. The International Hurdle doesn't boast the biggest of fields but is certainly not lacking in quality as it contains 3 very live Champion Hurdle contenders in Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby. I'm not sure what to make of the race given the very testing conditions and I'm not sure the result will have much of an influence on my views for the race in March, but I'm hoping Zarkandar prevails as I have him in my Ten To Follow team and it's going quite well! Oscar Whisky is also in my team and you'd expect him to oblige at whatever pointless odds on price he goes off at.

 

 

Cheltenham aside I actually fancy a few elsewhere today and Doncaster hosts a nice little card. Kings Grace is quite highly regarded by the McCain team so should have more to come and Rocky Creek (pictured below) is potentially a top class novice chaser and should come on a lot for his chase debut when narrowly missing out to Harry Topper (who advertised the form at Newbury a fortnight ago). Samtegal may not be favourite for the juvenile but could make it a double on the card for the Champion Trainer as he has stated this horse would be on a par with Far West; a level of form that you'd expect to be good enough to take this affair. The horse I'm most looking forward to today is the Kim Bailey trained Midnight Oscar, who lines up in the Novice Hurdle at Doncaster. Midnight Oscar is a cracking prospect for a trainer many of you will be aware I'm a huge fan of. MO was beaten on hurdle debut but Ludlow would be plenty sharp enough and I'd say he'll come on loads for the run and be better suited by this more galloping track. He's certainly an exciting prospect for the future regardless of how he fares today, but he should run a nice race so may be worth a punt depending on the price.

 

 

Lingfield hosts the day's other jumps meeting in England and Tanerko Emery should take all the beating as he won cosily last weekend after a cheekily confident ride at Ascot. Court In Motion has 2 declarations today but Lingfield is his preferred engagement and he's a horse I feel will progress as a chaser, though he's likely to be no price. The other horse I'll be watching there is Alphabetical Order, who has joined Tim Vaughan having previously been trained by Colin Tizzard. His former handler stated in a stable tour that "he'll be alright next time and I'll be disappointed if he can't win a bumper". He hasn't run since but a move to Vaughan is hardly a step back and he could be up to winning one soon.

 

Good luck if you have a bet today but I doubt I'll get involved unless I feel something is seriously overpriced (though I may not be able to resist a bet on Midnight Oscar!).

Preview for Friday of Cheltenham's International Meeting

Last weekend was a mixed bag. Certain results were disappointing and I had more than my fair share of 2nds with Oscar Magic, Aland Islands, Sin Bin and Join Together all hitting the crossbar as so to speak. Join Together took my breath away in defeat, jumping the Grand National fences like a seasoned pro before staying on like a train to lose out by a whisker. Whether he’ll stay 4m+ is another question but he is certainly a potentially exciting National candidate. On a more positive note, Araldur landed the spoils at an SP of 10/1, before Little Josh made a great day a fantastic one for Nigel Twiston Davies when taking the Grand Sefton at 7/2, though having opened up 8/1 in places just after being put up with Araldur on here! Though disappointed by the 2nds and flops from Rangitoto and Tempo De Cotte, these 2 winners more than covered the losses so it was alright in the end.

This weekend we return to Cheltenham and Friday looks a seriously competitive card. As I’ve said before on here I won’t have a bet or put a horse up for the sake of it, so if a race is very competitive or contains 2 or more horses I’m waiting for, I’d rather not have a bet than pick one and be beaten by the other! Unfortunately that is again the case at Cheltenham tomorrow, particularly in the Novice Chase and Novice Hurdle. Hildsivini is a promising horse for Charlie Longsdon who should go on over fences, but he faces no easy task in the 12.15pm where he’ll be taking on the likes of Broadbackbob and Rebel Rebellion and has to give those rivals 3lb. A race for watching I feel but certainly one to savour.

Next are 12 and 17 runner affairs respectively and although I’ll be ducking the 12.45pm, I may have a small interest in the 1.20pm. Dark Lover ran a decent race last time in the hugely competitive Racing Post Hurdle having previously won at the course in October. He may have finished 7^th but was only beaten 8 lengths and is partnered by Ruby Walsh this timee who, although not claiming 3lb, could find more improvement. Tom Du Lys would be interesting on his French form (he beat Unioniste over hurdles) and his trainer has stated they didn’t have much time before fitting him in a run at Sandown (when flopping) so it could be worth writing that off. He has grown and looks more the part now so may show a large degree of improvement and I’ll probably wait and see the market before deciding whether or not to bet him or the Nicholls horse (or neither!).

 

The 1.55pm isn’t a particularly appealing race for me but Bradley catches the eye. He nearly won last time and has run well at Prestbury Park a few times now, also proving himself in similar conditions. He is up 5lb for his close 2^nd but I have a feeling the first 3 home that day could have more to come so he may be worth chancing as he has a lovely racing weight of 10st 4lb. Course specialist Midnight Chase is the class horse of the race but carrying top weight won’t be easy and his price is likely to be skinny enough.

Hardly unexposed and he’s up 6lb for his win last time, but I think Uncle Junior will pick up another x-country race in the 2.30pm tomorrow. If you re-watch that win he makes one serious mistake but still travels like a dream and wins with great ease. Likely to be no price but Mullins doesn’t send horses over for no reason and I think he could take this one.

The 3.05pm sees another competitive big runner handicap field and Saint Roque immediately stands out after I had a decent punt on him last time off a lenient mark of 118. He was travelling very nicely that day and I feel could have taken the race if he hadn’t been brought down, but is sure to be a short price as the cat is out of the bag now.  Given that Saint Roque is trained by Paul Nicholls, it is of serious note that Ruby Walsh is declared on Inish Island who is trained by the aforementioned Willie Mullins. Obviously Ruby rides for both trainers but it is usually worth noting when he chooses one of Willie’s over one of Paul’s; particularly when believing the Nicholls horse to be well handicapped. The other horse I like the look of is At Fishers Cross who disposed of Salubrious very easily at Newbury the other week (much to the disappointment of my wallet!!) and a 9lb rise may not stop him as I feel that rival and Ardlui (who finished 3^rd) were both well handicapped themselves and the 3 were well clear of 4^th. Again the market will play a part in deciding whether or not to have a bet in this contest but the 3 all look like playing a large part in proceedings so I'll probably go each way about any that are 5/1 or bigger as they should make the frame whilst having a decent chance of winning so would be a safe bet. Maybe even perm the forecast/tricast.

The day closes with what I believe to be the most competitive, and also my favourite, race on the card! Not usually one to love novice hurdles, it is hard not to get excited over the prospects of this one at 3.40pm. Mr Watson cost £215,000 at the sales, Melodic Rendezvous ran 2^nd behind Champagne Fever in a Gr1 bumper at Punchestown, and Village Vic ran a cracker behind The New One at this course not long ago..... And they’re the ones I don’t fancy!!! Nicky Henderson is bidding for a 4 timer in this race having taken the past 3 renewals and Barry Geraghty rides Royal Boy for his boss. He cost £150,000 at Goffs sale in 2011 and although a cracking chase prospect for the future, he hasn’t run for over 600 days having suffered a setback so he may need this. Eduard won nicely last time but would need to improve a fair bit to take this hot contest and I’d totally discard Dr Dreamy, which leaves just Valdez and Imperial Leader. Both are horses I rate very highly and it would take a tough decision to split the pair! Valdez surprised many when losing on hurdles debut but put things right winning next time (Softsong in 2^nd finished a close 3^rd in a Listed event at Sandown last weekend) and could make into a Supreme horse come March so could take all the beating here. Imperial Leader, owned by the same partnership that own a certain Imperial Commander, is also a lovely horse who lost on debut to a decent sort but gave the race away through running so keenly early on. Having finished 2^nd in another bumper he was put away and seemingly matured over the summer as he returned with an impressive victory over a decent rival when upped in trip for his hurdles debut at Southwell. Like Imperial Commander, he is out of Flemensfirth so will be wanting all of 3m and fences in time so tomorrow’s trip could be on the short side (tomorrow's conditions could help make it more of a test of stamina), but he is certainly a hugely exciting young prospect who could go to the very top!

Hopefully tomorrow morning’s declarations for Saturday will be more kind and not pitch more than one of my horses to follow against each other! But below is a summary of the horses I’ll have in mind if the prices are right:

1.20pm – Dark Lover / Tom Du Lys (prefer e/w but may bet if 3/1 or bigger)

1.55pm – Bradley (if an e/w price)

2.30pm – Uncle Junior (NAP)

3.05pm – Saint Roque / Inish Island  / At Fishers Cross (bet any at e/w price)

3.40pm – Valdez / Imperial Leader (if e/w price, may be value in hot contest)