Wednesday, 13 March 2013

Cheltenham Festival - Day Three


Another day enjoyed at Cheltenham and a slightly more successful one with the first 2 home in the first. Went downhill thereafter but some e/w money in the Coral Cup meant it wasn’t too bad. Dynaste is perceived by some to be a “good thing” in the Jewson and he may well be, but he’s no value and one I think could run a big race is the Willie Mullins trained Aupcharlie. Mullins’ yard is obviously red hot so far this week and this horse has course/Festival form having finished 3rd in the Champion Bumper 2 years ago. I think he’ll improve for the drop in trip and better ground as he’s a strong traveller, and at 6/1 he looks a solid e/w selection to try and take on the favourite with in the 1.30pm.

 

At 2.05pm, the Pertemps is as much a minefield as usual. Sam Winner has been the hype horse but Paul Nicholls hasn’t had a winner so far and following hype horses was my downfall in the Neptune with Pont Alexandre flopping, so I’m going to take him on with Ballybough Pat at 14/1. He finished 2nd to a seriously good horse in Wonderful Charm at Chepstow in the Persian War (I’ll mention that again soon....) before being touched off by that old boy Fair Along at Newbury. His other run was in a Gr1 and he wasn’t totally disgraced so I think he’ll run a nice race here. He is a chaser in the making and I think will be a stone or so better over the bigger obstacles next year, but he could be up to defying this mark of 137 over timber. Others worthy of note are According To Trev whose connections believe he’s on a nice mark, and Close House who appears to have been targeting this race (it was his only handicap entry this week and he’s been put away since winning at Christmas) and has course form after finishing 2nd here before Christmas. However, the other horse I'll be backing is Top Of The Range who is by Presenting and ran a massive race behind African Gold in heavy ground at Newbury considering he needs this better ground. He won last time but I think he still has a fair amount to come so will have an e/w bet at 10/1 to go with Ballybough Pat.

 

I’m a big fan of Michael O’Leary and he has a big chance of winning the race his company sponsor tomorrow in the Ryanair at 2.45pm! First Lieutenant looks to have rock solid claims having won a Neptune (beating the following season’s Champion Hurdle winner) and finishing 2nd to Bobs Worth (now Gold Cup favourite) in last year’s RSA. He has gears and stays, a great combination to possess over this intermediate trip, and he could take all the beating. I’m also a big fan of Cue Card which presents a big dilemma for this race as I think he is also a seriously talented beast. He has form tied to all the top horses and although not staying in the King George, 2m5f on better ground is much more feasible for him. I’ll be going “no bet” I think as there’s little value in either of them, but it will be an interesting clash as I’d guess the Gigginstown representative will be ridden very prominently (possibly even making the running) in an attempt to stretch the stamina of Colin Tizzard’s animal. Champion Court is another I’ve always liked, though I’m not sure he’s of the very highest standard, and I’m sure he will be ridden as he was in the Jewson last year which will almost certainly guarantee it is a stamina sapping race. The likes of Albertas Run (multiple festival winner), Riverside Theatre (winner of this race last year) and For Non Stop are no mugs and this looks to be a very competitive race.

 

The feature race of the day is the World Hurdle at 3.20pm and I’m hoping this is where Champion Trainer, Paul Nicholls, can open his account for the week. As mentioned above, Wonderful Charm won the Persian War at Chepstow (the same race won by Silviniaco Conti a couple of years ago) and was apparently not even close to being 100% fit that day. He has since had a wind op and connections seem confident he is a serious horse, which he’ll need to be to make this jump in class. He must have had a solid chance in the Coral Cup off 149 if they fancy him in this race, so it’s worth noting they have skipped that for this Gr1 affair as he must be showing enough at home to warrant this engagement. I’ve always loved Oscar Whisky and the more the ground dries out for him the better, but he’s plenty short enough given he’s not exactly a certainty to fully stay the trip. However, I do think he will stay as he appeared to see out this trip on much worse ground in the Cleeve Hurdle and I think he can be ridden more positively now. Peddlers Cross is a horse I’ve never been too keen on, and Reve De Sivola is far from consistent (though he looks much better this season), so I think I’ll chance an e/w punt on Wonderful Charm at 10/1.

 

The Byrne Group is next up at 4pm and it’s hard to see past the Pipe gamble on Ballynagour. He improved a lot to win on his stable debut and I’m guessing Mr Pipe was delighted before that race when he saw the mark his recruit had been allotted. He travelled superbly in that race and although he’s had a huge hike in the weights, I think he could still have a bit in hand and will side with him at 4/1 for a small bet as nothing else jumps off the page. Hunt Ball is interesting now the ground is drying up as we know he can carry that mammoth weight, and Vino Griego is progressive so could improve again. The other horse I'll be backing is Sweet My Lord of that man Willie Mullins again. He was a talking horse for the handicap hurdles at last year's Festival but the yard weren't right last year and he's now 8lb lower than that over fences so surely has a squeak at

 

The 4.40pm is the race I will be having 2 decent bets in – the Kim Muir. Super Duty looks a very worthy 5/1 shot with excellent amateur Derek O’Connor booked as he has course form and I think he’ll stay fine. However, at 14/1 I feel Galaxy Rock is the value in the race as he also ticks a number of boxes. He has run some nice races at Prestbury Park (and we all know how important that course form can be!) and should be fine on the ground so with leading amateur JT McNamara booked I think a big run could be on the cards as Jonjo is due a winner! He is only 2lb higher than when beaten a length here in October but is also only 4lb higher than when winning nicely here the year before, so it wouldn’t be a big surprise should he find the necessary extra to make a case for himself at a nice price.

 

I still fancy Arabella Boy in the Cross Country (if it’s on) with a saver on Any Currency, for the reasons posted on Tuesday’s blog.

 

Good luck! (and apologies for lack of pictures but I'm tired!!)

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