Another day of top class racing on Wednesday
opens at 1.30pm with the 4 mile NH chase in which I think in form Willie
Mullins has another live chance with classy staying novice chaser Back In
Focus. He has Graded form and could be a cut above these, plus he looks a dour
stayer so should relish the test. He isn’t a big price but I think he is priced
correctly and he’ll take the beating. Of the rest, Nina Carberry (pictured below) rides 8/1 shot
Tofino Bay and although a 10yo, he could have a squeak as he has beaten
Aupcharlie and very nearly beat Arkle runner up Baily Green.
The Neptune at 2.05pm is potentially my
favourite race this week as I think there are some seriously talented horses in
there. Pont Alexandre doesn’t look much of a price at 6/4 in a race that has
plenty of class horses, but if he is as good as Mullins/Walsh think, he could win
this impressively. He is without doubt a chaser for the future (he has been
compared to the mighty Denman) but it has been suggested he is the most
exciting novice hurdler in Clonsutton since a certain Hurricane Fly, so it
would seem worthwhile taking note! The New One and Taquin Du Seuil are also
horses I like a lot and will both make cracking chasers. The New One got
outstayed in testing conditions last time but he showed a hugely impressive
turn of foot and certainly has pace to burn which could be of great help in the
drying ground (I also don’t think he was given the best of rides that day as he
went for home a bit too early in my opinion). Taquin has form behind My Tent Or
Yours and made the Henderson horse work hard that day, so he is certainly not
out of place in this competitive heat. Chatterbox however, beat stable mate My
Tent Or Yours (though I’d question that form) so is another who deserves a
crack in this, but I think the other horse who could serve it up to the Mullins
favourite with The New One and Taquin is the Gigginstown owned Rule The World.
Davy Russell has compared his profile with that of First Lieutenant (who most will
know won this race....) and he’s another who falls into the “could be anything”
category. Though plenty of very promising horses in this, I’d be siding with
Pont Alexandre (pictured below) and The New One (though a bug in the yard does worry me
slightly), but don’t think I could split them. I love both and will go “no bet”
to just enjoy the race, but think either will give a cracking run for your
money.
At 2.40pm, the RSA looks fairly competitive
and it’s hardly surprising to see a Mullins horse at the top of the market
again. Boston Bob always looked like making a chaser but had a great season
novice hurdling which culminated in a 2nd to the ill-fated Brindisi
Breeze at last season’s Festival. I think the step back up to 3m will bring
about a great deal of improvement from this young chaser and he could leave
this season’s form behind. That said, I would be happy to take him on with
something at an each way price. Unioniste and Hadrian’s Approach both hold
strong claims after they finished in that order at Newbury last time. Both camps
have stated their horse has come on plenty for that run so it’s hard to work
out whether the form will hold up or be reversed, but Hadrian’s Approach would
certainly need to have brushed up his jumping to have any chance in this.
Goulanes is another with claims (I think his form with Super Duty will be
franked when that hoses up in the Kim Muir on Thursday) and although Real Milan
pulled up last time, I think that may be worth putting a line through as he had
previously looked smart. However, I’m going to have an e/w punt in this on
Houblon Des Obeaux at 10/1 (though he has been much bigger) as I think form
tied to the likes of Harry Topper, Captain Conan and Rocky Creek is of a high
standard. He looks like he’ll stay all day and that is important in this race
as it is often fiercely run affair. He has won over course and distance over
hurdles which is always a plus for Cheltenham Festival credentials, and his
trainer Venetia Williams (pictured below) has been flying this year so I think he could run a
nice race at a double figure price.
At 3.20pm, Sprinter Sacre wins the Queen
Mother Champion Chase.
Onto the 4.00pm and a 28 runner handicap to
get stuck into with a good few I think have live chances. Pendra I feel is
rightly marked up at 7/1 as he is crying out for this trip (he’s by Old Vic).
He is off 139 and I am certain he won’t be for much longer as his form with Melodic
Rendezvous is very smart considering it wasn’t his optimum trip. Master Of The
Sea and Fiveforthree are both 12/1 shots I think have chances, but for very
different reasons. The former has recently changed hands but has been very
progressive this season and even won after being bought. He could have more to
come and although I won’t back him (particularly with the yard bug worry), I
wouldn’t be rushing to lay him. Fiveforthree is a different sort as he has
proven form in the book having won Gr1 races before a long spell on the
sidelines. He also has that all important course and distance form which is
vital, and although taking it for granted he retains a degree of his old
ability after injury troubles, Partrick Mullins has said he is very well and
expected to run a big race. He is thrown in on some of his old form and with
the yard opening the week with a treble on the first day, I wouldn’t be
surprised to see this one run a big race. 2 others at slightly bigger prices
are Barbatos at 20/1 (who has also been off injured but has a form behind the
classy Fingal Bay and Invictus, and a course win to his name so could be well
handicapped after an acceptable reappearance which he’d no doubt have needed)
and Hollow Tree at 25/1 (who actually beat the very smart Countrywide Flame at
Christmas last season and hails from a yard who happened to have a well
handicapped horse in this last year called Son Of Flicka). Of the lot I may get
on a couple, but Pendra (pictured below before switching to the ownership of JP McManus whose colours he'll be donning tomorrow) and Fiveforthree would be the 2 I am most keen on.
The Fred Winter at 4.40pm is another big
runner handicap but there aren’t many who jump out at me in this one (aside
from the Nicholls pair ridden by Walsh/Jacob). I am drawn towards the John Ferguson
pair of Bordoni and Ruacana and will be having a few quid on both. The reason
for this revolves around how bullish the Henderson camp has been about the
chances of Megalypos, claiming he is well handicapped. Though his stable debut,
Megalypos was beaten 6 lengths by Ruacana at Chepstow off level weights, and
although getting 2lb tomorrow (not that 2lb would really suggest a 6lb
turnaround), Jack Quinlan claims 3lb off Ruacana. Ruacana then ran with credit
over in Ireland to finish around 9 lengths behind the impressive Our Connor who
is obviously Triumph bound, so a mark of 139 (136 with the claim) could well be
lenient if the Henderson horse is well handicapped as is to be believed.
Megalypos is currently 10/1 and Ruacana is 20/1 so I think he’s worth an e/w
bet on value grounds. Given the above, I’ll have to have a small bet on the
Bordoni as it would appear that Denis O’Regan has opted for him ahead of
Ruacana (pictured below) and so he may too be expected to go well tomorrow.
The day ends with a typically competitive
renewal of the Champion Bumper in which I think you could pick 10 and still go
home skint! Sgt Reckless will be carrying my money as I’m told he is a
seriously good horse. Reports have been very good (apparently he has been doing
some great homework with a very highly rated flat horse) and the yard seem
extremely bullish about his chances (though when don’t yards hype up their
horses?!). The other big bonus in my view is that Richard Hughes (pictured below) takes the ride
– a very very very good flat jockey who is experience enough to cope with NH
racing. Others worth mentioning are: Regal Encore who is owned by JP and “could
be anything” as he was very impressive in beating not a lot; Fascino Rustico
who cost £310,000 and has had a wind op since a disappointing debut; Le Vent D’Antan
who is trained by the same connections who sold Cheltenian on before his win in
this race and are very clued up with these sorts; and Milo Milan who I think
could turn out to be a very very good horse for Evan Williams. I will also
mention Sir Alex Ferguson’s runner Im Fraam Govan as although I don’t think he’ll
be winning, if he did it would ruin my week as he took my breath away in
winning a hot race with consummate ease on debut before flopping on the all
weather. The more it dries out the better for him and I’ll probably end up
having a stupidly loyal e/w saver on him at 50/1 but Sgt Reckless is hopefully
the money train!
No comments:
Post a Comment