Super Saturday @ Newbury

Sat on the train down to Newbury and to say I’m excited for tomorrow’s racing would be like saying it’s a little chilly outside – a massive understatement! Whilst we may be enjoying Baltic conditions, I can overlook that when we have such a feast of top class racing to look forward to! I’ll be looking at Newbury’s card in this article, with a few fancies and a few other things to make note of (with regards to the future), and will put up a couple I like from the day’s other meetings in a separate article.

 

The 1.15pm Novices Hurdle kicks off what looks to be a highly competitive card, and this race could be just that! Chatterbox will have plenty of followers given he beat the highly regarded (and well fancied for the Betfair Hurdle later in the day) My Tent Or Yours on his hurdling debut, and whilst that is his only start to date, it’s by far the strongest form on offer here. Though Nicky Henderson’s charge has that vital form in the book, I am afraid to say I’m sucked in by the hype of a Paul Nicholls runner – again!! Lac Fontana is reportedly held in high regard at Ditcheat and after Clifford Baker put him up as his horse to follow on Channel 4 Racing a couple of weeks back, Mr Nicholls himself has spoken rather favourably of this juvenile in his Betfair column since. He obviously has a tough task on his hands here but the 16lb he receives from the aforementioned Seven Barrows representative will no doubt be a major help, particularly given the soft conditions in which they’ll be racing. Whether I have a small punt on this race will, as always, depend on the market, but I have already had a couple of quid each way on Lac Fontana for the Triumph and it’s fair to say that if he wins this affair he’ll shorten considerably for March.

 

Next up is another competitive race as a field of 18 line up for the 3m Handicap Hurdle at 1.50pm and again I like the Nicholls representative (for a change eh!). Rangitoto has arguably disappointed, particularly over fences, since justifying the confidence I had in him when he won a Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2011. Having expected him to go on from that and forge a fairly successful career over fences he hasn’t accomplished a great deal since, but the return to soft ground from extremely testing, heavy ground could help him and bring about some further improvement. The likes of Master Of The Sea and Monetary Fund are all interesting, progressive sorts, and there could be more to come from a few others like Knock A Hand,but Minella Class could be the real each way value in the race at 16/1. A friend text me this afternoon saying that Nicky Henderson’s horses in Handicap Hurdles who contested a Novice Chase in their previous race were 14/58, which is an impressive strike rate of 24%, and returned +106pts profit. Given these remarkable figures I think he would have to warrant an interest of some sort and at his price it won’t take too much of a stake to cover him.

 

Those regular followers will know that the favourite in the Denman Chase just happens to be my favourite horse in training. In short, I love Silviniaco Conti. Many will have also seen that I recently put him up in my Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview article, and therefore expect him to win this. David Bridgewater thinks a lot of The Giant Bolster, but while his chances may be better around Cheltenham at the Gold Cup trip, I still don’t think he’s as good as the Ditcheat inmate. The interesting rival for me is Tom George’s French recruit Mail De Bievre who is in receipt of 10lb, but even taking into account that he won’t be at peak fitness, I’ll be very disappointed if Conti can’t continue his winning streak with another facile victory en route to bigger things in March.

 

As you may have guessed by now, I fancy Paul Nicholls to have a very good day tomorrow. After he’s taken the 3 races above, I wouldn’t rule him out of nicking the Game Spirit either! I won’t be punting in this race but feel it’s worth noting that although Shooters Wood is 13lb wrong at the weights with stable mate Edgardo Sol, Ruby Walsh opts for the former. He looks somewhat similar to Edgardo Sol in that he appears to be as progressive as that horse was last year, rising a long way up the handicap with a few nice victories. Wishfull Thinking is quirky, Pigeon Island and French Opera look past their best (though the latter ran well behind Sprinter Sacre in this race last season) and the others simply don’t look up to it, bar possibly Majala who also looks a progress sort. One to watch and enjoy I think.

 

For the 5 timer – Pearl Swan! I’ve always been slightly biased about Team Ditcheat (not a bad thing given they’ve churned out champions for years!) but I just feel they do have seriously good chances in every race on this card. Pearl Swan was in touch and travelling alright when coming down not far from home in last season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and he hasn’t run since. He was staying on that day; has since had a wind op; and most will remember a certain Zarkandar following an identical path last season so it seems worth chancing that this one could do the same. My main doubt is that I don’t rate last season’s Triumph form as highly as I did when Zarkandar won it, but most of my other fancies want better ground so although I’ll be gutted if one of them wins, I can’t be backing them in these conditions. They primarily include Court Minstrel (who may not run), Cotton Mill (who is unproven having not encountered such conditions) and Claret Cloak (whose connections had been waiting for the ground to dry up). Pearl Swan is by no means proven in soft ground himself but I’m willing to take the risk that he will be, and although it looks a competitive race on paper, hopefully he’ll be ok. I think I’ll be going double handed as I can’t not have a small interest each way at 14/1 on Claret Cloak, even with soft ground, as I’m certain there’s a big pot to be won with him and he has gone okay on it before. The hot favourite My Tent Or Yours could take all the beating, particularly as AP will be flying (I guess) from Warwick for this ride as he rides on the card there earlier on in the day, but at 7/2 he is no price in a race of this nature so I couldn’t be backing him on value grounds.

 

The next race will be another “no bet” but I do find Hadrian’s Approach interesting. I think he’ll keep progressing and although Unioniste will obviously have plenty of support, I’d probably side with the Henderson horse (I can’t be on Nicholls in every race!). The last race however, I’m back on the master trainer! Vago Collonges looks another exciting prospect who is likely to make a name for himself over the next couple of years. He is by Voix Du Nord, a sire I have mentioned before who is seemingly becoming more and more fashionable, and his French form looks smart (he finished in front of this week’s winner Ptit Zig who also seems well regarded by connections) so I think he’ll take the final race impressively.

 

All in all it looks a cracker of a card and one I’m sure will have plenty of influence on some of the Cheltenham Festival markets for March. I hope you enjoy it as much as I know I’m going to, and hopefully there’ll be a winner or 2!