We may still be a good few
weeks away from the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup but I think it’s fair to say the race is shaping
up to be a cracker as contenders on both sides of the Irish Sea have been
staking their claims, some better than others, for that big prize in March. Whether
you’re a fan of the old guard (Long Run’s inclusion ironic in that the Gold Cup
and double King George winner is still only an 8yo) or the new crop of
potential champions, it certainly looks like being a race to savour and the
next few weeks could be quite interesting with the Irish renewing rivalries in
the Hennessy at Leopardstown and some of the English aiming for the likes of
the Argento Chase at Cheltenham and the Denman Chase at Newbury.
What better place to start
than a previous winner of the race in Long Run, a French bred who appeared to
have the world at his feet when bursting on the scene with a facile victory in
the Feltham at Kempton. He followed up with another easy win
at Warwick before finishing 3rd in the
RSA in March. Although flopping when highly touted for the PaddyPower Gold Cup
on his reappearance as a 2nd season chaser, he confirmed that
earlier promise by winning the King George at Christmas before adding a coveted
Gold Cup to his CV when beating those 2 all time greats Kauto Star and Denman
in the 2011 Festival showpiece. It has been far from plain sailing
since but Long Run showed he was still a very good horse
when giving 10lb and a beating to stable mate Burton Port in the Denman Chase
at Newbury before disappointing when only managing 3rd behind Synchronised
and The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham in the spring. Beaten again on reappearance
by Silviniaco Conti (a very good horse whose Gold Cup credentials will be
discussed below) he was always expected to improve considerably for it and did so to regain the King George a month later.
The 7/1 looks slightly overpriced given he has been placed in all 24 of his races under rules and is a 4 time Gr1 winner, but
whilst I think he has a fair chance of going close, I think he won the
King George because the conditions didn't suit many of his rivals. There would however, be worse 8/1 each way
shots than Long Run (pictured below).
Another who finished behind
Synchronised in last year’s renewal was David Bridgewater’s The Giant Bolster.
He’s an interesting candidate and shocked many last March,
particularly given he’s only won once in a race over a distance of more than
2m5f, and that was a 2m7f affair at Worcester as a novice. In the
aftermath of last year’s race I was sceptical to say the least regarding the strength of the race, believing Long Run failed to run his race and
was never right after such a tough race first time out. I still feel that way but credit where it’s due as The Giant
Bolster did fairly well to finish 7 lengths 3rd behind Silviniaco
Conti in the Charlie Hall in ground that would have been softer than
ideal. His subsequent Kempton run can be ignored as the ground was appalling
and he was never travelling. I don’t think he’s up to winning what is likely to
be a very competitive race, but I do think he’s better than he’s
been able to show so far this season and will improve for better
ground (if we ever get any!).
Willie Mullins has a very
smart prospect who also has good ground form at the Cheltenham Festival and
that is Gigginstown’s exciting 7yo Sir Des Champs (pictured above). After winning on his Irish
debut he was given a cracking ride by Emmet Mullins to win the Martin Pipe by half
a length at the Festival, running just twice more over hurdles before being put
away which indicates how highly he is regarded by
connections. Kept away from the bigger novice races, he racked up 3
victories (including 2 Gr2s) before lining up back at Cheltenham for the Jewson
and justified a big gamble to win fairly cosily by 4 and a half lengths. The manner in
which he won oozed class and his Champion Trainer was quick to tout him as a future Gold Cup horse, and he took a 25f Gr1 at Punchestown to end the season unbeaten with big things expected on his return. He’s raced twice since and
not won either, somewhat disappointing followers but at the same time still
suggesting he is a live contender for the big one. He's likely to have needed
the run when beaten by a race fit Flemenstar but his jumping was far from
accomplished in the Lexus at Leopardstown, though he stayed on strongly to take 4th and was beaten just ¾ of a length. That bodes well for his Gold Cup chances
over the extended trip as he looked to have plenty left in the tank and on
better ground (hopefully) with a cleaner round of jumping he looks one who will
be there at the business end of the race. The 5/1 about him is short
enough given the way he jumped last time but his records at Cheltenham and on
good ground both read 2/2 so it’s fair to assume he'll improve if granted
those conditions and his excellent handler will surely have him at his best
come March.
The other strong fancy from
the Emerald Isle is the aforementioned Flemenstar (pictured above) who has taken to chasing like
a duck to water, having won 7 on the bounce since finishing 2nd on his debut over fences, accruing an aggregate
winning distance of 70 lengths! He has pace to burn and is more than capable of
winning Gr1s over 2m but the fact that he’s never won over further than 2m4f
does instill a slight doubt over his stamina and he didn’t appear to have much
left at the end of the Lexus having travelled like an absolute dream. I personally think his optimum trip is that of the
Ryanair but Peter Casey appears not to respect that race and would rather drop
to 2m and take on Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase if
they don’t go for the Gold Cup. He is apparently not the best of travellers,
which would be another worry for at the Festival, and he seems and is bred to be best suited by soft ground so if the ground is good in March, there would be enough doubts over his chances.
Ryanair mogul Michael
O’Leary (pictured above) and his Gigginstown operation could go into the Gold Cup with a double
pronged attack as Sir Des Champs may be joined by RSA 2nd and Lexus
2nd First Lieutenant. Another with course form having finished a
short head 2nd in the 2011 Neptune behind future Champion Hurdle
winner Rock On Ruby, this Mouse Morris inmate made a somewhat lacklustre
transition to the larger obstacles in winning just 2 of his 7 novice chase
starts last season, both of which were in fairly uncompetitive Gr3 affairs. He
did however, improve considerably back at Cheltenham in the spring to finish
just 2 and a half lengths behind current Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth in the
RSA, which bodes well as he has proven a liking for Prestbury
Park and better ground (unsurprising given he’s by Presenting). The other
positive to take from this season is that he has appeared to run to a higher
level over these winter months having not doing so in previous years, which can
only be a good thing if he produces the so far annual spring improvement.
Some have worries over his stamina and feel he would be
best suited by the Ryanair (a race sponsored by his owners company) which is a
fair comment given he had the toe to go with a future Champion Hurdle winner in
his novice season. However, the likes of Denman, War of Attrition and
Ballabriggs are all by the same sire as First Lieutenant and they certainly had
stamina aplenty so you’d expect him to be fine over the extended trip having
stayed 3m in that stamina sapping ground at Leopardstown. For a horse who is
proven at Cheltenham, proven on the likely good ground, and who is bred to stay
the trip, I think 12/1 is a fair price for an each way bet.
The hero of the Lexus Chase
(arguably the race of the festive period) was in fact the Paul Nicholls trained
Tidal Bay (pictured above). Now those of you who follow this blog will have read my feelings on
the horse, and the training performance behind him, as one of my racing
highlights of last year; but that doesn’t mean I fancy him to take this
illustrious crown. If I’m honest, I don’t think he’ll even line up in this race
and can see him taking on the best staying hurdlers on the Thursday instead. He's almost certain to stay the trip but I think his trainer may be right in
saying that on good ground they may go a bit quick for him to be competitive
over fences and although he’d certainly be staying on all the way to the line,
I think he’d be left too much to do in the early parts of the race (he was
niggled along for most of the 3m in the Lexus even in testing ground).
Before I get to the 2 I
fancy most to be victorious and crowned King of the staying chase division, it's worth mentioning a couple of others who could take their place. Imperial
Commander (pictured above) needs no introducing as another former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. He
burst a blood vessel and pulled up in Long Run’s Gold Cup, but prior to that
his 3 most recent visits to Prestbury Park were most fruitful, bringing home a
PaddyPower Gold Cup, a Ryanair and a Gold Cup. In short, he loves the course
and has won a total of 6 races there. However, he has been off nearly 2 years
now and although he goes best when fresh, he's now a 12yo and so wouldn’t be
my idea of the winner but could run a nice race in the Argento in a
fortnight. Athough likely to
have his work cut out against Bobs Worth, it will be nice to see a
former champion back in action and he has a nice chance of making the frame.
Grands Crus is may go this route but although he
stayed 3m behind Big Bucks in the World Hurdle, I think a fast run Ryanair
would be ideal for him and would hope connections drop him in trip to contest
that race. Captain Chris was never my idea of a Gold Cup winner but his run
behind Long Run in the King George somewhat surprised me and did prove he has a
fair amount of stamina. My fear for him is that he's better right handed, but
he won an Arkle at Cheltenham so has to be of consideration given he's won at the course and has the proven stamina any Gold Cup winner will need. The final mention has to go to
last season’s fairytale horse, Hunt Ball. Another you may have read about in my
post on 2012 racing highlights, it would take a brave man to rule this horse
out of anything! His runs this season can be ignored as he’ll much prefer
better ground, and although not having won over 3m to date, he was staying on in
the Bowl at Aintree so he’s probably the one horse who may not surprise if he improved considerably.
Plenty of candidates who
will no doubt run massive races on March 15th, but the 2 I think
have the most solid profiles for the race are yet to come. The first of these
is the very solid 3/1 favourite Bobs Worth (pictured above), who although by no means unexposed,
looks well worth his current price in my opinion. He’s 6/6 going left handed;
4/4 at Cheltenham (including Cheltenham Festival wins in both the 2011 Albert
Bartlett and the 2012 RSA); and has a record of 8 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third
from 11 career runs. These figures are remarkable and given that he won this
season’s Hennessy off 160 (beating Tidal Bay, though in receipt of 6lb) and is
still a progressive, lightly raced 8yo, you would have to think he is very
deserving of his place at the top of the market.
The other horse I’m very
keen about is my favourite horse in training (as regular blog readers will
know) and that is Ditcheat inmate Silviniaco Conti (pictured above). In short,
I love him. This 7yo son of Dom Alco won my heart
when hosing up in the Persian War at Chepstow, beating subsequent Arkle
winner Captain Chris in the process. After a fair season hurdling for a certain chaser in the making he was put away to mature before embarking on a career
over fences in the autumn. Reappearing at Chepstow he was by no means given a hard time, finishing 3rd behind Cue Card and jumping
impeccably. With that educational introduction under his belt he stepped up next time to take the Rising Stars at Wincanton by 25 lengths on the
bridle, again perfect over his fences. Some feel he disappointed in finishing 2nd to imperious Feltham winner
Grands Crus but given Nicholls has since stated
he doesn’t feel that track suits (hence skipping this season’s King
George), it suggests he did well and he was staying on right to the line. After running poorly at Ascot he was given a break
and sidestepped Cheltenham before returning to demolish
the field at Aintree, making Champion Court (who chased home Sir Des Champs at Cheltenham) look fairly ordinary. I felt from the start of last season that Conti would improve considerably on anything he did as a novice as he still had plenty to learn, and he justified my excitement by winning the Charlie Hall impressively on reappearance. The acid test came on his only other start to date when stepped up to
Gr1 company to take on Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He didn’t
disappoint and won under a smart ride from Ruby Walsh who made all in a
steadily run affair, proving this is a horse to be reckoned with and connections immediately stated he was Gold Cup bound. The doubters claim he’s merely a “flat track
bully” and unproven at Cheltenham, but I think he ran well on his only visit
to Prestbury Park. He has also
won at Chepstow which is another undulating, left handed course that somewhat mirrors
Cheltenham (without such a steep finish). He has run well on all types
of going; is a progressive 7yo; is arguably the best jumper of a fence in the
race; and is trained by Paul Nicholls, the master of trainers. Ruby Walsh (pictured below with the boss) is
likely to ride which is, in my opinion, the reason he hopes Tidal Bay goes the World Hurdle
route. Granted I'm probably a little biased, but I’m certain there is more to
come from this one and he could be the next superstar to come out of Manor Farm
Stables.
To summarise, it looks a hugely competitive race and the Irish
challenge, in my humble opinion, looks likely to come from the Gigginstown pair
of Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant, both of whom are proven around
Cheltenham and love better ground. They look far stronger than the Irish staying chasers of recent years, but will need to be if they are to topple the mighty
English contingent that could be made up of around 5 or 6 genuine contenders. I
wouldn’t like to oppose Long Run given his super-impressive consistency and the
fact that he stays all day, but would be more confident in backing either Bobs
Worth or Silviniaco Conti. They are both progressive and will no doubt be
picking up a number of big prizes between them over the next few years, but
with the Nicholls horse 4 points bigger, I’d be siding with him each way at the
widely available 7/1 (NRNB). Bobs Worth is only big enough for a
win bet which I wouldn’t be 100% confident of in a race of this nature but in any
case it is very much a race to be enjoyed, and one that can’t come soon
enough!
SILVINIACO CONTI 7/1 e/w (NRNB)
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