Newbury Winter Festival - Day One

The 24hr declarations are now out for Newbury tomorrow which makes it that bit more exciting, knowing who will be running and beginning to analyse the races and try to pick a few winners. I visited Newbury on this Thursday last season and it is always a decent card, with Grand Crus winning here last term before going on to hose up in the Feltham at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. Many pointers for the rest of the season can be deduced from this 3 day Winter Festival and the action starts from the first race with a couple of interesting sorts in the 2m novice hurdle at 12.25pm.

 

Aaim To Prosper was a high class flat horses who makes the transition to NH racing tomorrow. Rated 112 on the flat he beat last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame in a Newmarket handicap on his final start of his flat campaign in October. Soon to turn 9yo he makes his entrance to the jumps game later in life than is usually expected of a flat horse, but in the hands of Ditcheat maestro Paul Nicholls he will surely be capable of competing at a high level. Whilst this smart ex-flat horse will no doubt play a part in this contest I am always slightly apprehensive in backing them until I’ve seen they operate efficiently over hurdles, so would rather side with a tried and tested sort such as Meganisi. Having taken time to acclimatise after coming over from Italy he hosed up in his 2^nd British start, beating tomorrow’s rival King’s Lad easily by 11 lengths. King’s Lad fell next time before surprising many in beating the highly promising JP McManus-owned Mr Mole but has to concede 3lb to Meganisi tomorrow. The Rebecca Curtis inmate followed up his win with 2 flat races, followed by 2 defeats over an extended 2m4f (the first time leading a few out before stamina seemed to be a problem). He drops back to the minimum trip tomorrow and conditions mirror those of the day he beat King’s Lad so I feel he may be able to confirm that form, particularly with the weight he receives, and could have a big chance of troubling the likely Paul Nicholls favourite.

I’ll be stearing clear of the 12.55pm as nothing sticks for me, though it could be that soft ground is the key to Parsnip Pete and could see him pick up another race or 2. An affinity to soft ground seems the opposite for Celtus as his trainer reported they would look for better ground for his next race (likely he runs here as he simply needs a run), but as said I won’t be having anything in this 6 runner affair.

The 1.30pm will probably be another no bet race as I don’t like playing in handicaps where I am not waiting for or following any of the runners. However, I do think there is more to come from Otto The Great who has reportedly schooled extremely well over fences but his trainer feels he should be able to win a race over hurdles before switching to a chase campaign, so depending on his price I may have a small interest as I think he’ll improve for his 2^nd last time out.
 

 

The 2.05pm sees a small but select field compete for the 3m novice chase and it could be a nice one. Benefficient travels over from Ireland for Tony Martin with AP taking the ride on this son of Beneficial who was touched off on chase debut before winning cosily on his 2^nd attempt over the bigger obstacles. The entended 3m and very soft ground is likely to suit and there should be more to come, but there will certainly need to be as this is no easy assignment. The Venetia Williams yard are firing better than they usually do at this time of year and with the way Houblon Des Obeaux won his chase debut it would be fair to assume he will progress throughout the season. He gave 4lb and a fairly easy beating to Paul Nicholls’ once 155 rated hurdler Poungach (who franked the form next time) in a fairly competitive Rising Stars Novice Chase at Wincanton. Houblon has won over a range of trips and has also won a 2m hurdle in heavy ground so looks like coping fine, but again will need to continue his improvement.

There are 2 horses I’m sweet on in this contest and one is the Emma Lavelle trained Highland Lodge who comes here on the back of an easy chasing debut success. Having won a Point, this son of leading sire Flemensfirth effortlessly won 2 hurdles before being pitched into a Gr2 and the mere fact he was sent off favourite suggests the high regard in which his connections hold him. Though beaten a fair way, the front 2 in that race looks extremely exciting and it may be that the good to soft ground was maybe a little quick over 21f and 3m on soft ground is likely to suit as Highland Lodge won over 25f on chase debut and has previously won in heavy ground over 20f. A lovely looking horse, I can see this one taking high rank in staying novice chases given the right conditions this winter and he appears to have them at Newbury tomorrow so could run a massive race. It is also reassuring that the yard is now firing after beginning the season rather slowly and hopefully this 6yo will continue the trend and collect this illustrious Gr2 event. However, the horse I think I will be backing tomorrow is Kim Bailey’s hugely promising Harry Topper. A smart hurdles campaign (the highlight being a 2^nd behind the late Albert Bartlett winner Brindisi Breeze) earned this promising young horse a hurdles rating of 135, but over fences I’m certain he has the potential to make up into a 150+ rated chaser. He opened his chasing account with a very smart win against Rocky Creek, a highly regarded Ditcheat inmate who is expected to go to the top of these larger obstacles. The race was an extremely competitive one for this time of year, but tomorrow’s contest looks almost as strong. The ground conditions should suit Harry Topper perfectly and I very much hope he does the business and racks up another victory for his experienced handler.

Cedre Bleu is a horse I have followed since he hacked up on his British debut at this course in a 2m hurdle. He signed off a light campaign with a distant 2^nd behind Spirit Son (no disgrace in that!) before returning in a chase a year later at this course, beating subsequent Grand Annual Chase winner Bellvano. Though only running twice since, only one was over fences and that was in the Gr1 Scilly Isles Chase (again at Newbury) and though beaten comfortably, the horses that beat him are a serious bunch. For Non Stop won the race and has since run well at the Cheltenham Festival before returning with an impressive win in the Old Roan at Aintree this season. The 2^nd was the 143 rated Michael Flips, 3^rd was 145 rated Our Mick, and 4^th was Walkon who finished a 3 length 2^nd in last week’s prestigious PaddyPower Gold Cup at Cheltenham. This bodes well for Cedre Bleu, who also goes well fresh (won twice after a break) and could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper off his mark of 135. His only other run last season was over hurdles but his trainer reports he coughed so a line can be put through that run, he has strengthened up nicely and has been crying out for 3m so this 2m6f in likely soft/heavy ground could be ideal. I think he is well worth being on in the 2.40pm tomorrow (preferably each way if the price allows) and it could be worth taking a price as soon as the market opens with Best Odds Guaranteed as I can see the money coming for him.

 

Hopefully weighed down by bags of cash after the previous few races (I wish!), the 3.15pm is another race that could end up being no more than a watching brief. Nicky Henderson has been firing on all cylinders (as he always seems to) recently and reports that Lyvius has matured considerably over the summer so he is likely to play a big part given the weight he receives from most of his rivals. Edgardo Sol was one of the most progressive horses in training last season and switches well between hurdling and chasing so couldn’t be written off with the promising Harry Derham taking off a useful 7lb. The other 4 also have potential to stake their claims and could all potentially be well handicapped; particularly Vendor who was one of the most talked up horses prior to the Cheltenham Festival in March. For these reasons I will enjoy this race without any financial interest but it is sure to be a cracker.

I tend not to get involved in NH Flat races (bumpers) as it is hard to analyse a race when you have no real idea what most of the horses are capable of as they haven’t run. I’m surprised Nicky Henderson doesn’t have a runner in the 3.45pm as he often takes this race (including with Oscar Whisky, and Barenger 12 months ago) but am interested in AP's ride Gone Too Far who is trained by Alan King . Hopefully tomorrow morning’s stable tour will shed more light on his chances but I’ll probably have a small interest anyway.

In summary, I will more than likely be backing (preferably each way if the price allows):

12.25pm - Meganisi
2.05pm - Harry Topper
2.40pm - Cedre Bleu
 

I may have small change on the others such as Lyvius and Otto The Great for an added interest in their races, but as with any major meeting tomorrow is likely to be fiercely competitive. The bonus of this is that although it can hard to pick winners, any you do pick should at least be respectable prices. I look forward to the day as win or lose the quality of racing should be of a high standard and give indications of how the rest of the season could shape up. Good luck! The stable tour at Alan King’s in the morning will no doubt be fascinating and hopefully enlightening for both this meeting and the rest of the season!

Happy days!