Betfair Ascot Chase Day

Selection wise last weekend was a mixed bag, Newbury went appallingly but there were a few winners on the other cards so not too tragic. Racing wise it was an absolute corker! We enjoyed an excellent day at Newbury (as always!) and the racing was not only of a very high standard, but also very informative with regards to the Festival. Tomorrow’s card at Ascot (pictured below) looks equally mouth watering and a few extremely exciting horses look set to stake their festival claims!

 

The first race sees Donald McCain’s promising young novice hurdler Up And Go, who has won impressively all 3 times he has completed (he’s fallen in 2 other starts), attempt to give 5lb to a fairly strong field containing formerly smart flat horse Aaim To Prosper, eye catcher last time out Sausalito Sunrise, and Copper Birch who finished close behind At Fishers Cross 2 starts ago. This 7 runner Class 2 affair could turn out to be a pretty competitive one and I personally wouldn’t be getting involved.

 

Aside from the Betfair Ascot Chase later on the card, I’d say the Reynoldstown is the race I’m most looking forward to seeing tomorrow. Rocky Creek is a horse I followed throughout last season though knowing he was definitely one who’d improve for bigger obstacles this season, and so far he has proven to be an exciting recruit to the novice chase ranks. However, tomorrow is no walkover and Donald McCain’s Real Milan is a more than worthy rival having won both his chase starts with considerable ease (even giving 7lb away last time) and receives 3lb from the Nicholls horse. Though these 2 are both extremely smart, this is by no means a 2 horse race (excuse the pun!) as Tour Des Champs was still challenging Rocky Creek when falling at Warwick (he also won a minor affair by 31 lengths next time out) and enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights which could see him serve up a serious challenge to the likely favourite. The other horse to add to the mix is Houblon Des Obeaux, trained by the in-form Venetia Williams, who should relish the step up to 3m and slightly better ground. He also has to give a few lb to most of them but has contested 5 races over fences already this season so has experience on his side. I doubt I’ll be backing at the likely prices, but my colours will be firmly attached to Rocky Creek as I think he’s a horse you will be hearing a lot more about over the next couple of years. The form of his races so far this year looks very strong and I hope he’ll take this before side-stepping Cheltenham as he looks a serious prospect for the future.

I won’t be looking too hard at the next race as I think it could go to anyone, but find General Miller and The Bear Trap interesting in the following race. The former was a smart novice (he won at Aintree in the spring) but has only run twice since the end of that season due to injury. However, the most recent of those runs was a 5 length 2^nd behind Overturn off 145 and whilst he received plenty of weight and was beaten comfortably, he has been dropped to 139 now so if retaining any of his old ability he could be competitive. It’s interesting Nicky Henderson has persevered with him and has won fresh a couple of times so maybe worth chancing if he is a half decent price. The Bear Trap catches the eye as although his form to date doesn’t look to special, he wouldn’t be the first JP McManus horse to appear that way and improve past a mark of 123. He has looked better since going handicapping and has a nice racing weight of 10st 4lb, which isn’t far off AP’s lowest (he did 10st 3lb aboard Mr Watson for the first time in 2 years a fortnight ago) so he would be worth a market check.

 

On to the feature race and it looks a cracker! I’m a huge fan of Cue Card (pictured above) and he’d be my idea of the Ryanair, particularly on slightly better ground, so if pushed I’d be taking his side. But this is no walk in the park as Arkle winner Captain Chris has looked back to his best recently and didn’t mind the conditions in the King George at Christmas. Somersby is another dangerous rival as he ran a decent race behind Sprinter Sacre having been off for 9 months and that could well have put him spot on for this. He always runs a big race at the Berkshire track and it would be no surprise if this was his season target. Finians Rainbow obviously can’t be ruled out but I think he needs better ground to be seen at his best and he ran very poorly here last time, and Ghizao and Pigeon Island don’t really look up to taking a race of this quality anymore (though the latter ran a massive race last time out).

The 4.25pm is a 4 runner race, but in reality it is likely to only really concern 2 of them. Far West has arguably been the most impressive juvenile so far this season, hosing up a couple of times at Cheltenham and cementing himself as a horse to be reckoned with. River Maigue has also looked a smart prospect having finished 2^nd in a hot race at Cheltenham (when supposedly in serious need of the run) and then hacking up in a race at Kempton that hasn’t worked out too badly. Strictly on the figures you’d have to side with Far West as his official rating is 5lb higher than that of River Maigue (pictured below), yet he still receives 9lb in weight from the Seven Barrows inmate. I think the best way to pick between them could be to toss a coin and hope for the best as I think we could enjoy a great battle!

 

The final race of the day is no easier to decipher as 2 horses strongly fancied for the Champion Bumper both take their places and aim to strengthen their claims for that coveted prize in March. Captain Cutter beat a promising horse on debut here and they were 11 lengths clear of 3^rd so it’s almost unsurprising that he has since been bought by the mighty JP McManus. He’ll certainly need to be smart to take this as Red Sherlock absolutely hacked up on debut and looked a horse with a bright future. As always with a bumper, there could be something else in there unraced or unexposed who could surprise and take it, but you’d have to think this pair will be fighting it out between themselves and should make the forecast between them (if only we knew which way round!).

On such a competitive day I think it would be foolish to get too involved but I will take a chance on General Miller retaining some of his old ability if the price is right. The Bear Trap is unlikely to be much of a price but if he were he could tempt a saver. I like Rocky Creek very much and may stick him in a double, possibly with Cue Card, or maybe a horse from one of the day’s other meetings (one of which is also housed at Ditcheat!), so have a read of the next article that will highlight a couple elsewhere! Good luck, and enjoy the racing!