Tuesday 25 December 2012

Never Too Early For A Grand National Bet!


 
The Grand National is one of the highlights of my year and is arguably one of my favourite races all season. My approach to betting in the race is simple – I back half the field! I don’t care about winning or losing money as I would never have a serious sized bet in a race of its nature, but there is nothing worse than waiting all year for the race, betting on 2 or 3, and having none left to follow by the 4th or 5th fence! I like to go into the race with a huge team, in an attempt to ensure I still have some chance a couple from home! I don’t have level stakes, I’ll have bigger bets on horses I actually fancy, and sometimes even £1 each way on huge priced outsiders whether it be because I like the jockey, the name or the silks (very professional selection eh!). Usually I will chip away at different points in the season and get a fancy price about something I feel will contract on the back of a particular race, meaning I only need tiny stakes. An example of this is the £2 I had at 80.0 on Join Together to win (and a little bit on the place at 27.0) before he ran in the Becher Chase a couple of weeks ago. My theory was that given I fancied him to run a massive race in that (he did, narrowly beaten by Hello Bud), his price would automatically be cut for the big race in April as connections would obviously consider that route for his season. He is now around 21.0 and 5.1 respectively.

 

Today I have added another horse to my portfolio and that comes in the shape of the soon-to-be 10 year old, Chicago Grey (pictured above). Having won the 4m NH Chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, he would appear to have been a disappointment if reading his results literally. However, this could have played to his advantage as, having been campaigned in conditions by which I feel he is not best suited (shorter trips and soft ground); his chase mark of 150 has now dropped to 143. What this means in terms of the National is that he is very likely to be allotted a racing weight not much higher (if at all) than the bottom 10st; a factor that may prove highly beneficial to his cause. He is definitely targeting the race according to a stable tour given by trainer Gordon Elliott (pictured below); his stamina is proven; and although he was brought down fairly early in last season’s renewal (a risk that is ever present in the race for horses who are dropped out the back), he didn’t appear to be too troubled by the 4 obstacles he did negotiate.
 
 
For the above reasons, I’ve decided to invest each way at his current price of 50/1 (widely available) and will be hoping he can add another big pot to the one his trainer took at Ascot on Saturday with Cause Of Causes.

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