Kempton is obviously the best
place to start and the King George looks a seriously competitive renewal! The
only factor that disappoints me is that the going will be heavy, meaning it may
not shed too much light on how the Gold Cup may pan out in March! Having had a couple of quid
each way on Cue Card at 25s before his reappearance, I’m happy enough with that
given his current price though I wouldn’t be 100% confident that he’ll stay this trip in heavy ground - we shall see! Long Run has to
have a favourite’s chance. I like the horse and just feel he is more of a
plodder these days as he doesn’t have the turn of foot the speedier sorts have
(hence not quickening past Kauto last season!). Hopefully he’ll make the
running tomorrow and if so I could imagine him galloping them into the ground
and making it a gruelling test of stamina. The chief dangers in my eyes would
be Kauto Stone (proven in heavy and won a Gr1), Riverside Theatre (pictured below, goes
extremely well fresh and proven over C&D) and Grands Crus (top class in
Feltham last season and if wind op helps him see out his races better, he could
play a massive part). I won’t be getting involved but it certainly looks an
excellent race to watch and I can’t wait to see what happens!
The first race on the card
also looks very competitive, but I feel the likes of Spirit Of Shankly and New
Years Eve will have their work cut out to get close to River Maigue. The latter
of the pair in particular is unlikely to be suited by the ground conditions,
but even on better ground I’d fancy Barry Geraghty’s mount as I believe the
race he ran in last time could turn out to be one of the best of its kind this
season. The winner, Dodging Bullets, looks decent value in the Christmas Hurdle
later on the card in my opinion, and the third, Court Minstrel, is a horse I
think will also play a big part in the Supreme at Cheltenham in March.
Although the aforementioned
Dodging Bullets could be decent value in the Christmas Hurdle, it’s another
race I wouldn’t be getting too involved in. Darlan (pictured below) is the horse I think could
be the best in the race but I’d have worries about the ground for him. Another who
seems to have people worried about the ground is Cinders And Ashes, but although
flopping last time behind seriously impressive Countrywide Flame in tough
conditions, he is proven on such ground and I’d be inclined to ignore that run
as he was beaten first time out last season before racking up a few nice wins,
culminating in the Supreme at Cheltenham. He’s around 4/1 tomorrow and I wouldn’t
be surprised to see him improve massively on his previous run.
The 2nd race
looks set to be fought out by just 2 of them in my opinion and those 2 are
Rajdhani Express and Coole River. The former looked set to win before departing
last time and I’d expect him to go very close tomorrow, but Emma Lavelle’s
representative made a more than satisfactory reappearance after a long layoff.
He had some very smart looking hurdles form before his injury and if he has
retained that ability he could take all the beating with some improvement
likely, you’d just have to hope he doesn’t “bounce”.
The third race is an
interesting one as there is a short favourite (quite rightly so some may say
after the way Dynaste won impressively at both Cheltenham and Newbury), but I
think I may take a chance on Paul Nicholls’ Poungach improving considerably for
the step up in trip and serving up a shock. He was high class over hurdles and
although not looking the finished article yet over fences, I feel there is more
to come and at 11/2 he looks worth an each way bet as you’ll get your stake back
if he places. Hadrians Approach is another who I think will continue to improve
with every run and for that reason I won’t be including Dynaste in any
multiples tomorrow.
The final race on the card
is somewhat frustrating as both Saint Roque and Katkeau figure highly in my “horses
to follow” notes! As mentioned when he was withdrawn a week or so back, I quite
fancied Saint Roque having backed him on reappearance when he was brought down
a few from home at Cheltenham when arguably looking like the winner. He should
defy a mark of 118 as I feel he could make into a 145+ chaser in time, so would
have to go close tomorrow. Katkeau was in the process of running a big race
last time and was still cruising on the bridle when making a clattering error
and smashing one of his hurdles, after which he was hardly touched and
seemingly looked after. He’s proven in the conditions and is likely to run a
big race with Tom Scudamore now taking the ride, so given the both relatively
short prices it may be worth chancing a reverse forecast on the pair.
Kempton is by no means the
only card tomorrow and a couple of horses catch my eye across both sides of the
Irish Sea! David Pipe (pictured above with his King George hope Grands Crus) looks to have a big chance of taking the Ffos Las bumper
with Top Gamble after he was beaten in similar conditions last time by a horse
that cost a few quid. The other horse of note at the Welsh track would be former
Hennessy winner Carruthers who has dropped to what could still be a very
winnable mark. He also drops seriously in class of race so could take the beating
in what doesn’t look the best of contests.
Over at Wincanton the 2.15pm
is another very annoying race in that a good few are down on my lists! Connectivity
looked a decent horse for Dr Richard Newland but has had a layoff since and The
Pier certainly has a race in him for David Pipe but when that is I’m not sure. Rangitoto
is one I’ve mentioned before and it appears worthy of note that he continues to
take in Handicap Hurdles and not go back over fences (where he is bred to
excel) as it suggests his connections feel he can win one of these before doing
so. However, Holywell and Ardlui are the pair on which I’d rather concentrate. Holywell
looked competitive last time out and should be winning a race soon if you ask
me, but Ardlui certainly looks well handicapped on his Newbury 3rd
(see previous blog article “Could Be More To Come” to see why!) and the step up
in trip looks sure to bring about further improvement so for those reasons I
shall be having a punt on him tomorrow.
Though unlikely to back them
other than possibly in the odd multiple, Umpact (Limerick), Fickle Fortune
(Down Royal) and Ned Buntline (Leopardstown) all look to hold big chances in
their respective races in Ireland. Another horse I’d like to flag up in the
Emerald Isle is Gordon Elliott’s juvenile Fisher, who goes in the 1.20pm at
Leopardstown. His form to date looks decent and his trainer is reportedly quite
impressed by him, but even more interesting is that he has had a wind op since
his last run so there could be more to come on the back of that. However, he is
expected to improve a fair amount for better ground so I’d be willing to leave
him alone tomorrow as it’s a half decent race (he could make the places) but
then have an each way ante post punt on him for the Cheltenham Festival. I’d
say the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is the most likely race and if you
could get a price on him with BetVictor it would be worth utilising their
excellent Non Runner Free Bet offer in case he doesn’t go for the race. The
final horse of note in Ireland is Old Kilcash who takes up an engagement in the
3.30pm at Leopardstown. He cost £300,000 so is worth keeping an eye on but, as
with all these big money purchases, is likely to be a longer term project so
may not be a good thing in a race like this. In any case, it could be worth
making a note of him with a view to the future!
Best of luck with whatever you back and most of all, enjoy a top class day for racing!!
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